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What Looks Like a Landslide May End Up Being a 'Mirage'

Analytics firm says Trump could have big lead at first, then lose when mail ballots are counted
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Sep 1, 2020 11:44 AM CDT

(Newser) – President Trump might well have a huge lead over Joe Biden when election night 2020 comes to a close, but that doesn't mean he'll win. A Democratic analytics firm warns Axios of what it calls a "red mirage" on Nov. 3. The issue is that most Republicans are expected to vote in person, and those votes will be tallied immediately. But far more Democrats than Republicans are expected to vote by mail, and it could take days or longer to count those ballots. "We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump," says Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn. But days later, it could become clear that Trump's "victory" was instead a "mirage." More:

  • For example: In one scenario, Trump could be up 408-130 in electoral votes with 15% of the mail ballots counted on election night. A few days later, with 75% of mail ballots counted, Biden could take the lead.

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