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Loss of One State Could Make Biden an 'Underdog'

He remains the favorite, but Pennsylvania looms large
By Newser Editors,  Newser Staff
Posted Nov 2, 2020 11:19 AM CST

(Newser) – With one day of campaigning to go, the polls tell a familiar story. Joe Biden is the frontrunner over President Trump in national surveys. He also leads in most of the swing states, though by smaller margins. But at FiveThirtyEight.com, an analysis by Nate Silver has a headline with another familiar theme: "I'm Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win." The site has Trump's chances of victory at about 10%. Silver runs through the ways Trump can win re-election, and Pennsylvania is a big one. Yes, Biden leads the polls by about 5 points there, but that's not a very comfortable margin. And if Biden loses Pennsylvania, his own path to victory gets much trickier. In fact, on Sunday, Silver told ABC's This Week that Biden becomes the "underdog" if he doesn't win his native state, per Fox News. Related:

  • A final poll: The last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of the contest has Biden up 52-42 among registered voters. "This is the 11th survey we’ve done in 2020, and so little has changed,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart.
  • More on Pennsylvania: A new Monmouth University poll actually has Biden up 7 points in the state, at least in a high-turnout model. The lead shrinks to 5 points if turnout is low or if lots of mail ballots are rejected.

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  • Twitter's Seven: Twitter says it is trying to guard against false information spreading on election night, and it has named seven media outlets it deems credible in terms of calling races. They are ABC News, the AP, CBS News, CNN, DecisionDeskHQ, Fox News, and NBC News.
  • When: NPR takes specific look at when six key states might be called—Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While the nation might know some of them Tuesday night or early Wednesday (Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina), the counting of mail ballots could take until Friday or so in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona.
  • White House, Congress: A final, detailed forecast at Politico finds that Biden remains the favorite, "sporting the kind of national advantage that isn’t typically seen in the hyper-polarized era of modern politics." Yes, the lead in battleground states is smaller, but "public and private polling show the president is a significant underdog going into Election Day." The forecast has control of the Senate as a "toss-up," while Democrats are expected to gain seats in the House.
  • Last push: Trump has five rallies scheduled on Monday: one each in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and two in Michigan, per the Washington Post. Biden will be spending most of his time in Pennsylvania but will also make a quick visit to Ohio.
(Read more Election 2020 stories.)

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