Here Is the Final 'Crystal Ball' Election Forecast

As expected, bad news for Democrats is predicted
By Evann Gastaldo,  Newser Staff
Posted Nov 8, 2022 3:00 AM CST
Updated Nov 8, 2022 6:31 AM CST
Here Are the Final 'Crystal Ball' Ratings Before Election Day
People in privacy booths vote in next week's midterm election at an early voting polling site at Frank McCourt High School on the Upper West Side of Manhattan in New York City on Tuesday, November 1, 2022.   (AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey)

There have been multiple warnings in recent days that polling errors and other wildcards could result in midterm election surprises—nonetheless, the final ratings offered by Sabato's Crystal Ball on the day before Election Day will likely surprise no one. The ratings out of the University of Virginia Center for Politics predict a GOP net gain of one Senate seat, resulting in a 51-49 Republican Senate, and a GOP net gain of 24 House seats, resulting in a 237-198 Republican House of Representatives. As for governorships, the prediction is a net gain of one for Republicans, resulting in a gubernatorial count of 29-21 Republican.

A number of closely-watched races have swapped columns: The Raphael Warnock-Herschel Walker Senate race in Georgia started out as a toss-up but is now in the "leans Republican" column. The Arizona gubernatorial race made the same switch. The John Fetterman-Dr. Mehmet Oz race to fill an open Senate seat in Pennsylvania was initially "leans Democrat" and has shifted to "leans Republican." As for those aforementioned "wildcards," the site notes that its prediction is the best Democrats can hope for is a night that's "good but not necessarily great" for Republicans. Politico, in its own final election forecast, has the battle for House control as "likely Republican" but puts the Senate in the "toss-up" column. But the Hill notes that in its final forecast, the Cook Political Report shifted the Senate toward Republicans. (Read more Election 2022 stories.)

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