Why Obama Could Lose in 2012
George H.W. Bush had great approval ratings two years out, too
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff
Posted Jan 28, 2011 12:53 PM CST
President Barack Obama pauses while addressing the Families USA 16th Annual Health Action Conference, in Washington, Friday, Jan. 28, 2011.   (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

(Newser) – Right now, Barack Obama’s approval ratings are riding high in the wake of a strongly bipartisan State of the Union address and lovely Arizona speech. But there’s plenty of time for all that to change before the 2012 election, writes GOP operative Mark McKinnon in the Daily Beast: “@#&! Happens when you are at the helm of the free world.” He lists 12 reasons why Obama could lose:

  • Obama’s supporters are “exhausted” and disappointed, much like Velma Hart.
  • Obama is sometimes overexposed; in a 2008 Pew poll, close to half of respondents said they’d heard too much about him.
  • The economy is still in trouble, and Obama's approval rating for his economic policies is still below 50%.
  • The Tea Party still has all the momentum. These voters will show up to vote if the fate of ObamaCare is on the line, and “all politics is turnout.”
  • Republicans will benefit from redistricting—five traditionally red states are gaining seats, while six of 10 states losing them are blue.
  • The wars are still going on, and the number of voters who think we’re losing is at its highest level in three years.
  • Only 37% of independents say they’d re-elect Obama if the election were held today.
Click for the complete list.