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Bachmann's Iowa Lead Bigger Than It Looks

But race could still be upended by Rick Perry

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Jul 13, 2011 8:32 AM CDT

(Newser) – Michele Bachmann’s 4-point lead over Mitt Romney in the latest Iowa poll might be even bigger than it looked at first. Dig deeper into the poll, and you’ll find that among the voters labeled “most attentive,” Bachmann is leading by a whopping 32% to 18%, Aaron Blake of the Washington Post observes. That’s huge because Iowa’s caucus system is inherently dominated by those “most attentive” voters. “She’s clearly got a constituency: The aware and the hard-core,” said one Democratic pollster.

But there’s still a looming question mark over the race: Rick Perry. GOP insiders tell Politico that Perry is dropping heavy hints that he’s jumping into the race, though his chief strategist says he may not decide until Labor Day. He'll get a warm welcome; a collection of major donors and party officials tell the Washington Post they’re waiting for a horse to back, with eyes on Perry. “It’s a huge opening for Rick Perry—huge, huge, huge,” said one New Hampshire operative.

Michele Bachmann greets supporters during a July 4 parade in Clear Lake, Iowa.
Michele Bachmann greets supporters during a July 4 parade in Clear Lake, Iowa.   (Getty Images)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 18 comments
bartlett4america
Jul 14, 2011 11:04 PM CDT
I think it's worth pointing out that since Iowa has this hokey caucus system there is no such thing as a "secret ballot."  Instead people have to stand up in  room and openly declare their preference.  Not a method of "voting" that encourages broad participation. The fact that Bachman might have a lead - even a bigger then expected lead - has nothing to do with whether or not she could actually win Iowa in the general election.  Right now she's ahead in a contest that tilts heavily toward the right-wing metaphysical wing of the Republican Party.  In the general election which is done by secret voting and includes the total population of "reality based" voters, her chances of victory are significantly less.  She can't be elected to anything but her current heavily Republican congressional district.
DontLikeYou
Jul 13, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
The left should fear her.  You are noticing a conservative Republican trounce a very well backed Liberal Republican.  This bodes well for America, but not for Obama and his cronies.
jaguarj
Jul 13, 2011 6:42 PM CDT
I got a side mirror that says.."things are bigger than they look"!!
 

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