Michele Bachmann’s 4-point lead over Mitt Romney in the latest Iowa poll might be even bigger than it looked at first. Dig deeper into the poll, and you’ll find that among the voters labeled “most attentive,” Bachmann is leading by a whopping 32% to 18%, Aaron Blake of the Washington Post observes. That’s huge because Iowa’s caucus system is inherently dominated by those “most attentive” voters. “She’s clearly got a constituency: The aware and the hard-core,” said one Democratic pollster.
But there’s still a looming question mark over the race: Rick Perry. GOP insiders tell Politico that Perry is dropping heavy hints that he’s jumping into the race, though his chief strategist says he may not decide until Labor Day. He'll get a warm welcome; a collection of major donors and party officials tell the Washington Post they’re waiting for a horse to back, with eyes on Perry. “It’s a huge opening for Rick Perry—huge, huge, huge,” said one New Hampshire operative.