Cain Beating Perry—in Texas

Gallup poll shows Romney at 20%, Cain at 18%, Perry at 15%

(NEWSER) - It’s not a hoax or a dream: Herman Cain really has surged to the upper echelon in GOP primary polls. Cain more than tripled his support in Gallup’s October poll , jumping from 5% in September to 18%, just a hair behind Mitt Romney’s 20%. Rick Perry, meanwhile, plummeted from 31% to 15%. The result is roughly in line with last week’s polls showing Cain’s surge. The rest of the candidates were all in the single digits. More»

Rick Perry in single digits in both places

(NEWSER) - The GOP primary is a two-horse race at the moment in pivotal South Carolina and Florida—just not between the two horses you thought it would be last month. Herman Cain has taken the lead in both states, topping Romney 30% to 26% in South Carolina and by a slim 32% to 31% margin in Florida, according to new NBC-Marist polls . Rick Perry is a distant third in both states, with 9% in South Carolina and 8% in Florida. (Both were conducted before last night's debate .) More»

...And a lot of spin afterward

(NEWSER) - History suggests that it doesn’t matter who actually wins tonight in Iowa—it matters who exceeds expectations, or fails to meet them. The media is always flabbergasted by strange Iowa finishes, but they shouldn’t be, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times , because thanks to unreliable polls they happen all the time, and seem especially likely this year. “A wide range of outcomes remain possible in Iowa even at this late hour,” he warns, and as you can see, his final predictions contain wide margins of error: More»

Cain dropping out could work either way for Romney, pundits say

(NEWSER) - The news that Herman Cain is "reassessing" his campaign in the wake of allegations of an extramarital affair has left pundits wondering which candidate would come out on top if the Cain Train came to a halt. A look around the blogosphere:

• Some of Cain's Tea Party and evangelical supporters may end up choosing Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum, but rising Mitt Romney alternative Newt Gingrich is best placed to benefit, decides Molly Ball at the Atlantic . Gingrich and Cain "share a stylistic appeal: an air of authenticity, as well as a certain joie de vivre," she writes.

Gingrich 'everyone's buddy'; Romney, Perry not so tight

(NEWSER) - We’ve seen them battle on camera—but how do the Republican candidates relate to each other behind the scenes? The candidates’ complex network of relationships is the stuff of TV drama, a New York Times piece suggests: They range from buddy-buddy to all-out “frenemies.” Having worked together as governors, Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman seem to be the closest pair, palling around during debate commercial breaks, writes Ashley Parker. Newt Gingrich is “everyone’s buddy,” but is particularly close to Herman Cain. More»