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Mortgage Crisis Rivals S&L, Tech Busts

Complex implosion could take far longer to untangle, experts say

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Dec 10, 2007 1:13 PM CST

(Newser) – How does the current mortgage debacle measure up to the savings-and-loan meltdown of the 1980s and the tech crash of 2000? Losses look manageable, the Wall Street Journal reports in a detailed analysis of how this crisis differs from other crashes, and how likely it is to spin the economy into a recession. But it could be exacerbated and prolonged by complex differences.

The housing boom-bust cycle was typical in some ways—enthusiasm for an asset drove prices to unsustainable highs. But unlike, say, tech stocks, houses are usually bought on credit, and as prices drop, defaults will rise, extending the pain. Worse, a whole new financial system has sprung up around mortgage-backed securities, making untangling the mess a monumental puzzle.

Chart shows percentage of foreclosures starts for subprime, FHA, VA, prime and all loans, percentage of seriously delinquent loans and subprime adjustable-rate mortgage forclosure starts; 1c x 3 1/8 inches; 46.5 mm x 79.4 mm
Chart shows percentage of foreclosures starts for subprime, FHA, VA, prime and all loans, percentage of seriously delinquent loans and subprime adjustable-rate mortgage forclosure starts; 1c x 3 1/8 inches;...   (Associated Press)
US HOME FORECLOSURES ROCKET FROM YEAR AGO
US HOME FORECLOSURES ROCKET FROM YEAR AGO   (Getty Images)
August Foreclosure Rates Double From Past Year
August Foreclosure Rates Double From Past Year   (Getty Images)
Map shows percentage of subprime ARMS loans in foreclosure by state; 2c x 4 inches; 96.3 mm x 101.6 mm
Map shows percentage of subprime ARMS loans in foreclosure by state; 2c x 4 inches; 96.3 mm x 101.6 mm   (Associated Press)
Nettie McGee, 73, a great-grandmother from Chicago with mortgage interest problems, left, listens as others testify on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2007, before the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on home foreclosures. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, is at second from left. (AP Photos/Susan...
Nettie McGee, 73, a great-grandmother from Chicago with mortgage interest problems, left, listens as others testify on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2007, before the Senate Judiciary...   (Associated Press)
A foreclosure sign tops a sale sign outside an existing home on the market in northwest Denver in this Aug. 29, 2007 file photo. The Bush administration has hammered out an agreement with industry to freeze interest rates for certain subprime mortgages for five years in an effort to combat...
A foreclosure sign tops a sale sign outside an existing home on the market in northwest Denver in this Aug. 29, 2007 file photo. The Bush administration has hammered out an agreement with industry to...   (Associated Press)
A home is advertised for sale at a foreclosure auction in Pasadena, Calif. in this Aug. 14, 2007 file photo.  Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months. While not...
A home is advertised for sale at a foreclosure auction in Pasadena, Calif. in this Aug. 14, 2007 file photo. Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known...   (Associated Press)
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