Prediction: We'll Discover 1st 'Earth Twin' in 2013
With 50B planets in Milky Way, astronomers think big discovery looms
By Mark Russell, Newser Staff
Posted Dec 28, 2012 9:20 AM CST
In an undated rendering provided by the University of Hawaii, a new planet forming around a star is seen. Several astronomers are predicting 2013 will be the year a true Earth-like planet is detected.   (AP Photo/ University of Hawaii Institute for Astronomy, Karen L. Teramura)

(Newser) – With more than 800 exoplanets identified since 1995, many astronomers are predicting that 2013 will be the year that the first truly Earth-like planet is spotted, reports Space. Scientists have gotten ever closer to finding an alien Earth in recent years, identifying several in the right temperature range and others close to our size; but none has yet put together all of Earth's features. But with 200 billion stars hosting at least 50 billion planets in the Milky Way alone, astronomers think it likely there are many Earth-like satellites out there. "Assuming that 1:10,000 are similar to the Earth would give us 5,000,000 such planets," wrote one scientist.

As for how we might discover that alien Earth, the smart money is on the Kepler telescope, which has already spotted 2,300 potential planets since being launched in March 2009. But once we identify an Earth twin, then what? Many scientists hope it could inspire humanity to venture off our planet and deeper into space. "We humans will look up into the night sky, much as we gaze across a large ocean," said another astronomer. "We will know that the cosmic ocean contains islands and continents by the billions, able to support both primitive life and entire civilizations."

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Jan 3, 2013 2:25 PM CST
First of all, there are 1 billion Earth twins, whether fraternal or identical. Finding one is subjective. Meaning, so we find one, what about the rest of the billion earth look alikes...I know and you know that there are many earth like twins out there...wish scientists would stop screwing around with our common sense.
Dec 30, 2012 3:16 PM CST
There have been a great many times that scientists assumed they'd make certain specified discoveries or breakthroughs within a named timeframe, yet they failed to do so. How can they be silly enough to do so again?
Dec 30, 2012 1:50 AM CST
1st you have to find a star very similar to ours. 2nd the planet has to be just the right distant from the star. 3rd there are so many variables that i am unable to count, that i feel the odds are far more infintismal then what is stated