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Economists Lean Closer to the R-Word

Almost half on US panel predict recession, up from 25% last year

By Jim O'Neill, Newser User

Posted Feb 25, 2008 7:09 PM CST

(Newser) – An panel of US economists leaned closer to predicting recession today after grappling with a slew of scary data, the AP reports. More than half of analysts at the National Association for Business Economics maintained that a downturn is still unlikely, but 45% expected recession in 2008; only a quarter saw a 35% chance of recession in a report last September.

All agreed that the economy will contract through June, with GDP growing at a paltry 1.8%. The group also predicted a second-half rebound due to Washington's $168 billion economic stimulus package and Fed rate cuts. Other NABE forecasts include:

The Fed will cut its federal funds rate rate to 2.5%.
The Consumer Price Index will climb by 2.5%.
Oil will drop to $84 by year's end.
Unemployment will rise from 4.6% last year to 5.2%.

Click on the links below to read more about NABE's predictions.

Construction workers carry pipe on a site where new homes are being built Wednesday, Oct. 17, 2007, in Fremont, Calif. Home sales continue to be a weak spot in the economy. (Associated Press)

A foreclosure sign tops a sale sign outside an existing home on the market in northwest Denver. The subprime debacle has hurth the US economy. (Associated Press)

Unsold 2008 G6 sedans sit in a long row at a Pontiac dealership in Littleton, Colo. US automakers have struggled in a souring economy. (Associated Press)

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Economists Lean Closer to the R-Word

Almost half on US panel predict recession, up from 25% last year

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Recession Fears Overblown: Economists

Fed's actions key strong economic reports, signs of market recovery

Bernanke: Adjustment Is Mostly Over

But admits economy could contract, possibility of recession

Next 12 Months: No Recession, but Slow Growth

Risk of recession at 26%; unemployment likely 9% at year's end

Recession Worse Than Thought; GDP Growth Weak

Economy grew just 1.3% over past three months

Bernanke: We're Prepared to Dole Out More Stimulus

Says he expects more job creation once 'temporary shocks' pass

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Economists Lean Closer to the R-Word

Almost half on US panel predict recession, up from 25% last year

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OTHER STORIES ON OUR RADAR

Federal Reserve • recession • economist • US economy • GDP • credit market • economic stimulus package

MOST POPULAR STORIES

[ By Views ]

[ By Comments ]

More Newser Stories

Recession Fears Overblown: Economists

Fed's actions key strong economic reports, signs of market recovery

Bernanke: Adjustment Is Mostly Over

But admits economy could contract, possibility of recession

Next 12 Months: No Recession, but Slow Growth

Risk of recession at 26%; unemployment likely 9% at year's end

Recession Worse Than Thought; GDP Growth Weak

Economy grew just 1.3% over past three months

Bernanke: We're Prepared to Dole Out More Stimulus

Says he expects more job creation once 'temporary shocks' pass

About Us

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Newser By Users

Community

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What is Newser?