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For Some, 'Just Win' Doesn't Cut It

Posted Mar 17, 08 10:42 PM CDT in Sports 

(Newser) – Never mind R.P.I. and coaches' polls. It's a team's average margin of victory by which you should be basing your NCAA tournament picks, writes one Georgia Tech professor in The New York Times. Joel Sokol says a close win and a close loss are very similar, with statistics showing that teams bounce back better from a tight defeat than a blowout.

But various rankings use only wins and losses and don't have any sort of scale for won/loss margin. In other words, North Carolina, with six nailbiting wins, is more susceptible to the upset. After crunching the numbers on everyone from Carolina to Coppin State, who does he like? Kansas, which lost only three games, of which two were by 3 points or fewer.

Source New York Times

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Kansas center Cole Aldrich (45) dunks in the first half against Texas A&M during the semifinals of the men's Big 12 basketball tournament in Kansas City, Mo., Saturday, March 15, 2008.   (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
North Carolina's Will Graves (13) reacts during the first half against Virginia Tech in the Atlantic Coast Conference basketball tournament at Bobcats Arena in Charlotte, N.C., Saturday, March 15, 2008....   (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough reacts after making the game-winning basket in North Carolina's 68-66 win over Virginia Tech in the Atlantic Coast Conference men's basketball tournament at Bobcats Arena...   (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
Kansas guard Mario Chalmers (15) pumps his fist after scoring a three-point basket against Texas in the championship game of the men's Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, March 16, 2008.   (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
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NCAA basketball • 2008 NCAA Tournament • North Carolina Tar Heels • Kansas University Jayhawks • Georgia Tech


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