Clinton Is Still the Frontrunner

Yes, Donald Trump has a path to victory, but a post at University of Virginia analyst Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball blog asserts that Hillary Clinton remains the "clear frontrunner." Not that the news is great for her: New concerns about her emails are taking a toll, and the Clinton camp's renewed attention on the "basically must-win" states of Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia, and Wisconsin suggests it's concerned about one slipping away. What's more, if national polls suggesting a virtual tie prove to be correct, the race could truly be a "jump ball," with states including Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania becoming toss-ups. "We just don’t think that’s where we’re at," writes Sabato, "and state-level polling continues to show Clinton leading in all of those vital states."

His bottom line as of Thursday: Clinton has 272 safe electoral votes, plus another 21 (Nevada and North Carolina) leaning in her direction. "Trump is now at 214, better than Romney’s 2012 total of 206, but also without a clear path to add the 56 additional electoral votes he needs to get to 270." Even if he picked up Florida, that wouldn't be enough. "Therefore, while Democrats are quite right to be nervous about the outcome, we as handicappers do not at this point believe there is enough of a compelling argument to believe that the race is truly a toss-up, let alone that Trump is favored." Click for the detailed breakdown. (More Hillary Clinton 2016 stories.)