Futures traders are betting Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee—and that the Democrats will take the White House. Although they expect Hillary Clinton to take three upcoming primaries, groups based in Iowa and Dublin give Obama an 86% chance of winning the party’s nod, compared to 12.8% for Clinton. Studies say such predictions are about as accurate as public polls, Reuters reports.
The general election looks tighter to traders: Dublin’s Intrade sees a 59.1% chance of a Democratic victory, versus a 48.8% chance the GOP will win. Iowa traders offered similar numbers. Meanwhile, traders look for Clinton to win Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky, while Obama should take Indiana, Montana, and Oregon. Traders buy and sell contracts based on such predictions.