Economists Predict When Next Recession Will Arrive

Most say 2020
By Evann Gastaldo,  Newser Staff
Posted May 10, 2018 1:14 PM CDT
Updated May 13, 2018 2:00 PM CDT
In this April 22, 2014 file photo, job seekers line up for a job fair at Columbia-Greene Community College in Hudson, NY.   (AP Photo/Mike Groll, File)

(Newser) – When will the US enter its next recession? Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal are predicting 2020. We're currently in an economic expansion that started in mid-2009—the second-longest in American history—and 59% of the forecasters surveyed think it is most likely to end in two years due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Another 22% predicted 2021; smaller groups predicted 2019, 2022, or an unspecified date beyond that.

Recessions are difficult to predict, but one economist who took part in the survey says signs are emerging that the current expansion is in the late stages of its cycle, and another says "any year from 2019 onward is in play" for a recession. The last recession began in December 2007; alarms were raised in 2011 and 2016, but the US did not enter a recession either time. The longest-ever economic expansion was in the 1990s, lasting 10 years. (Read more US economy stories.)

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