What on Earth Just Happened in Russia?

If you blinked and missed the headlines on Saturday, the news out of the Russia-Ukraine war will cause a double-take on Sunday. Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner Group declared an open rebellion against Vladimir Putin, brought his tanks about 120 miles from Moscow, then abruptly called off the coup and said he was leaving for Belarus after the Kremlin promised not to prosecute him. The head-spinning developments have analysts all over the world scrambling to assess. Examples follow, but perhaps the big one to keep in mind comes from Alexander Vershbow, a former US ambassador to Moscow and a current deputy secretary general of NATO. "We can speculate all we want, but the fact is we have little idea of what happens next," he tells the Washington Post.

• Weaker Putin: "Whatever the outcome of this weekend's astonishing drama, Putin looks weaker than at any time since he became president in 2000," writes Luke Harding at the Guardian. "His decision to invade Ukraine has proven a major strategic blunder—the biggest of his career and one that may, sooner or later, force him from power." In terms of the war itself, the weekend developments "dramatically" raised the chances of a Ukrainian military breakthrough, he adds.

• Weaker Putin, II: The above sentiment is widespread. "Putin has shown he can no longer maintain order among his warlords," per an analysis at the Economist. "He has been greatly weakened by the challenge—and in his world weakness tends to lead to further instability." John Simpson, world affairs editor at the BBC, similarly sees this as evidence of "real, real weakness in Putin's rule."
• The aftermath: Peter Baker of the New York Times agrees that the near-coup suggests "Putin's hold on power is more tenuous than at any time since he took office more than two decades ago." But those rooting for his downfall should be wary. "Weakness begets riskier behavior on Putin's part," says Jon Huntsman Jr., a former ambassador to Russia under former President Trump. "There's a new ripple in Putin's 'invincibility,' which will be exploited from every angle."
• No winners? A Wall Street Journal assessment by Yaroslav Trofimov suggests both Putin and Prigozhin emerge weaker. The rebellion did fall short, after all. "The entire system has lost yesterday, including Prigozhin, who is also part of the system," says Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. "It turned out that the czar is not a real czar because he couldn't control a man from his own system who's supposed to be under his full control."
• The timeline: A timeline by the New York Times shows how the near-rebellion unfolded in real time. It includes a map showing the progression of Prigozhin's tanks.
• At root: Prigozhin, whose group has fought some of the deadliest battles on behalf of Russia in Ukraine, has lately become a scathing critic of Russia's military strategy and of its justification for the war. He has demanded the ouster of Russian defense chief Sergei Shoigu, per the AP. As of Sunday, Shoigu was still in his post. Prigozhin has accused the Russian military of deliberately targeting Wagner camps with rockets and artillery.

(More Russia rebellion stories.)