Oh, No: They Could Tie

The 1% chance of Obama and McCain fighting to a draw has web humming
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff
Posted Sep 26, 2008 2:07 PM CDT
The 2004 electoral map.   (Wikimedia Commons)

(Newser) – It’s not inconceivable that the 2008 election could end in an electoral tie. OK, granted, the odds are roughly 99-1, but that 1% chance is enough to send politics geeks flocking to sites such as FiveThirtyEight.com, which conduct complex electoral simulations based on the latest polling, the Wall Street Journal reports. “If we had a tie, I would be surprised, but I wouldn't be shocked,” said simulation guru Sheldon Jacobsen.

These simulation sites also show a nearly 8% chance that the popular-vote winner could lose electorally. The projections are volatile, swinging wildly with new polls, but they’ve had success: Jacobsen called 2004 correctly. The most likely tie scenario involves the candidates splitting Nebraska’s oddly divided electoral vote. That would leave the new House of Representatives to decide the election.