'Bradley Effect' Is Overblown, But Obama Can't Ignore It

Racism will play a factor, but might not boil down to simple dishonesty

By Nick McMaster, Newser Staff

Posted Oct 2, 2008 6:20 PM CDT

(Newser) – Much has been made of the so-called Bradley effect in this year's election—the propensity of white voters to tell pollsters they've got no problem voting for a black candidate but to change their tune in the privacy of the voting booth. Patt Morrison cautions in the Los Angeles Times that the phenomenon is probably exaggerated. After all, Tom Bradley’s 1982 California gubernatorial run was complicated by a gun-control proposition, which turned out many rural voters who hadn’t been polled as heavily.

So polling inaccuracy, not voter dishonesty, was probably more to blame for the original Bradley effect. Morrison notes that voters today seem more upfront about telling pollsters they can’t vote for a black candidate. Still, "good polls don't change bad attitudes," she says, agreeing with one pollster that Barack Obama probably needs a double-digit lead to feel secure.

[Images (3)]

[Quotes (2)]

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks at a rally at Calder Plaza in Grand Rapids, Mich., Thursday, Oct. 2, 2008. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Where pollsters might in the past have been fooled into overestimating whites' support for black candidates, many will now openly admit their racist leanings. (AP Photo)

Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election though polls showed him with a comfortable lead; pollsters believe many whites lied about their voting intentions. (AP Photo)

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Good polls don't change bad attitudes. If America 2008 hasn't changed much from California 1982, by next year pundits will be calling it the "Obama effect." - Patt Morrison, LA Times

Today, people tell pollsters outright that they won't vote for a black candidate. In Pennsylvania's Democratic primary, one voter in six said race influenced his vote. - Patt Morrison

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'Bradley Effect' Is Overblown, But Obama Can't Ignore It