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A Baseball Nerd Turns to Election Stats

Nate Silver was right on the Rays; he's now calling the presidency

By Katherine Thompson,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 15, 2008 11:32 AM CDT

(Newser) – Give the sheer number of political polls being produced, and the history of many of them proving wrong, it takes a seriously smart statistician (and something of a nerd) to predict the presidential race with any authority. Nate Silver, the man who "revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats," is both, and he's doing it again with politics, on his site FiveThirtyEight, New York magazine reports.

One of the only people expecting the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to win 90 games this year (they won 97), Silver has credibility when he says Barack Obama has a good chance of an electoral landslide. How does he do it? By weighting polls based on their methodology and previous accuracy, and tracking demographic trends. Oh yeah, and running 10,000 computer simulations of  the election every day based on those poll projections. A week ago, he had Obama winning those 90% of those simulated elections.

The Tampa Bay Rays lost 96 games last year, so plenty of people laughed when Nick Silver predicted 90 wins in 2008.  The Rays won 97 games, and are now lead Boston 3-1 in the ALCS.
The Tampa Bay Rays lost 96 games last year, so plenty of people laughed when Nick Silver predicted 90 wins in 2008. The Rays won 97 games, and are now lead Boston 3-1 in the ALCS.   (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
This 1960s photo shows Barack Obama with his baseball bat in Hawaii.
This 1960s photo shows Barack Obama with his baseball bat in Hawaii.   (AP Photo/Obama Presidential Campaign)
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama campaigns at the Seagate Convention Centre in Toledo, Ohio, Monday, Oct. 13, 2008.
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama campaigns at the Seagate Convention Centre in Toledo, Ohio, Monday, Oct. 13, 2008.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, right, speaks as Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama listens during a debate in Nashville, Tenn., Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2008.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, right, speaks as Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama listens during a debate in Nashville, Tenn., Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2008.   (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine looks on as Barack Obama speaks Aug. 21, 2008. Nick Silver's statistics show Obama with a chance to take Virginia, a huge coup if it were to happen.
Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine looks on as Barack Obama speaks Aug. 21, 2008. Nick Silver's statistics show Obama with a chance to take Virginia, a huge coup if it were to happen.   (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)
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If Obama does lose, I think it’s healthy to try and understand why, rather than just kicking and throwing things. - Nate Sliver

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