There are plenty of unpredictable factors that might elude pollsters, Kathleen Parker writes in the Washington Post. Most famous is the Bradley Effect. “While some have minimized the impact of a Bradley Effect in this election, we'd be wrong to discount it. Anti-black has morphed to some degree into anti-foreigner and anti-Muslim.” But there may be a Reverse-Bradley Effect among moderate Republicans horrified by the McCain campaign.
If a Reverse-Bradley Effect occurs, it won’t be a positive endorsement of Barack Obama. “Sitting quietly at their desks are an unknown number of discreet conservatives who surprise themselves as they mull their options.” But that’s not a mandate for Obama—it’s a prayer for centrism and sobriety.