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Is McCain Closing the Gap? Not Fast Enough: Silver

Republican picking up little to no ground

By Gabriel Winant,  Newser User

Posted Oct 30, 2008 7:46 AM CDT

(Newser) – John McCain isn’t moving up on Barack Obama in the polls—at least not fast enough to be significant, writes statistics guru Nate Silver at his blog FiveThirtyEight.com. The Republican appears to be about six or seven points back. While he’s picked up maybe a point in the last week, he has to gain six more in five days to close the gap—not an easy task.

“Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most,” writes Silver. In most swing states, Obama appears to be strengthening his position or, at worst, slipping into a tie with McCain. In the top tier, Obama's lead is steady in Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. In the second tier, McCain seems to be gaining in Florida, Obama in Ohio and Nevada. “My feeling is that John McCain still needs some sort of external contingency to win the presidency.”

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., boards his campaign plane as the sun sets in West Palm Beach, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., boards his campaign plane as the sun sets in West Palm Beach, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008.   (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks to a rally in Kissimmee, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks to a rally in Kissimmee, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. makes a statement after participating in a National Security Roundtable at The University of Tampa in Tampa, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. makes a statement after participating in a National Security Roundtable at The University of Tampa in Tampa, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008.   (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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Even if some of the more conservative turnout models are correct AND even if he were to win large majorities of the undecided vote, he is probably a little bit too far behind to catch up. - Nate Silver

Rather, McCain will need to find some way to eat into some fraction of Obama's decided vote, and because most of Obama's support is quite hard (e.g. enthusiastic), that will not be easy to do. - Nate Silver

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