Expect Surprises on Tuesday

Recent election days have been dramatic affairs. Will Tuesday be any different? The Washington Post asked some politicos to peer into their crystal balls:  

• Dick Morris and Eileen McGann: The election is a referendum on how much we trust Obama, and undecideds will break McCain’s way. If Obama isn’t “convincingly north of 49%” in the final polls, “we are in for a long night.”
• James Carville: Bob Barr and Ralph Nader will swing some states (though not the election; Obama will win), with Montana and Barr’s home of Georgia as likely candidates.

• Mary Beth Cahill: Democrats expect to win all down the ticket, but “the winds of change blow both ways,” and incumbents of either party shouldn’t feel safe.
• Linda Chavez: “I’d be surprised if John McCain wins even 30% of the Hispanic vote.”
• Bob Shrum: “The surprise is no surprise—no hanging chads, no reversal of preelection polls or exit polls.” Obama is just too strong. 

(More Election 2008 stories.)