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To Predict Flu, Follow the Money

Looking at how bills travel lets researchers predict shape of epidemic

By Katherine Thompson, Newser Staff

Posted May 4, 2009 9:07 AM CDT

(Newser) – Scientific research requires funding, but in the case of the Northwestern University team modeling the spread of swine flu in the near future, actual dollar bills are an important element of their analysis. The team has used information from a website that tracks the movement of money to predict how quickly the disease will spread, the New York Times reports.

The model has stood up fairly well so far, bringing some credibility to the predictions of only about 2,000 US infections by the end of May. As with the exchange of money and major travel, most new cases are expected to occur in a few hubs: New York, Houston, Miami, and Los Angeles. The simulations also use commuter data, all crunched through a supercomputer.

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The number of times a bill changes hands over its lifetime can be astounding. Maps of the paths of money can be used as proxies for human interactions, and therefore flu spread. (Flickr)

A doctor wearing a bio-hazard protection suit stands at the entrance of the area where people suspected of contracting the swine flu virus are treated in Mexico City yesterday. (AP Photo)

Sandra Martell holds her daughter Vanessa, both wearing masks as a precaution against swine flu, as they wait for their flight to Mexico City yesterday. (AP Photo)

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People have a very weird perception of large numbers. If you have 2,000 cases of flu in a country of 300 million, most people think they’re going to be one of the 2,000, not one of the 299,998,000. - Dirk Brockmann, an engineering professor who leads an epidemic-modeling team

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To Predict Flu, Follow the Money