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WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2009
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El Niño Returns to Pacific, May Limit Atlantic Storms

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(Newser) – An El Niño has developed in the Pacific, a boon to Americans living near the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast who can expect fewer hurricanes as a result, the Palm Beach Post reports. The NOAA reported the conditions in June, and they could keep up through winter. “If it persists, we're in for a pretty quiet season,” says a Miami forecaster. But a newly identified phenomenon could spoil the optimism.

Georgia Tech scientists recently reported a system called El Niño Modoki, in which warming occurs further west in the Pacific and actually results in more hurricanes for Easterners. There’s “about a 50 percent chance that we could have one of the Modoki years emerging by late summer,” a forecaster said. The last such year was 2004, which produced 15 named storms.

This NOAA satellite image taken in 2008 shows a swirl of clouds off the coast of Central America in the Eastern Pacific Ocean associated with Tropical Storm Alma.
This NOAA satellite image taken in 2008 shows a swirl of clouds off the coast of Central America in the Eastern Pacific Ocean associated with Tropical Storm Alma.   (AP Photo)
This satellite image annotated and provided by NOAA shows Tropical Storm Andres in the Pacific Ocean moving northwest towards Mexico.
This satellite image annotated and provided by NOAA shows Tropical Storm Andres in the Pacific Ocean moving northwest towards Mexico.   (AP Photo)
Debris from Hurricane Paloma block a road in Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba, last year.
Debris from Hurricane Paloma block a road in Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba, last year.   (AP Photo)
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2 comments
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RobN
Jul 9, 09 6:56 PM CDT
Typical weather forecast. So it's either going to be a quiet season or it isn't. How much does this guy get paid to tell us it's going to be a coin flip? Reply
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yorkshireterrier
Jul 10, 09 2:03 AM CDT
Destroy his global warming myth? Global warming increases the air and water temperate of the globe, causing more storms and also making storms more violent, on average. I hardly think that one quiet year in the Atlantic at the expense of the Pacific disproves anything. It's even a coinflip, with the alternative being that the Atlantic will have a *worse* year than usual.
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