Ethics Scandal Is No Waterloo for Palin
Gov will skate past latest allegations unscathed: Nate Silver
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff
Posted Jul 22, 2009 10:50 AM CDT
This Feb. 8, 2009 file photo shows Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at the start of the 2009 Iron Dog snow machine race in Big Lake, Alaska.   (AP Photo/Al Grillo, FILE)
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(Newser) – The latest ethics complaint against Sarah Palin—investigators believe she misused her position to solicit personal legal donations—won’t leave a scratch, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. Here’s how to predict which scandals will make it big:

  • Can it be reduced to a sound bite? Nope. Heck, the AP struggled to summarize it at all.
  • Does it cut against a core element of her brand? Nope. McCain’s attempts to paint Palin as an ethics crusader never stuck.

  • Does it reinforce a core negative? Yes, because it dusts off doubts about her resignation.
  • Can the opposition use it? Probably not. The public dislikes Palin, but doesn’t like it much better when Democrats pick on her.
  • Does it have enough tabloid oomph? Not normally… but “a meteor would pretty much have to hit the earth for the media not to amplify a piece of Palin gossip.”