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Hall of Fame Voting So Predictable, a Computer Can Do it

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Jul 27, 2009 7:37 AM CDT
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(Newser) – The Baseball Writers of America turn out to be a predictable lot. A new computer program from a Missouri State computer science professor can accurately predict who’ll join the Hall of Fame, the Wall Street Journal reports. Given a set of 1,592 players who retired between 1950 and 2002, it accurately identified 98.7% of those selected to be Hall of Famers.

The program doesn’t even use particularly arcane statistics to make its predictions. For pitchers, plain ol’ wins, saves, ERA, and winning percentage are all it worries about; for hitters, it considers hits, home runs, and OPS. All Star appearances count for both as well. But don’t worry, there’s still room for barroom debate: some cases, like Mike Mussina or Edgar Martinez, even the computer can’t guess, giving them a 50/50 shot.

Rickey Henderson, left, and Jim Rice hold their plaques after their induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY, Sunday, July 26, 2009.
Rickey Henderson, left, and Jim Rice hold their plaques after their induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY, Sunday, July 26, 2009.   (AP Photo/Mike Groll)
Jim Rice speaks with reporters on a tour of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY. In the background is Ty Cobb's Hall of Fame plaque.
Jim Rice speaks with reporters on a tour of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY. In the background is Ty Cobb's Hall of Fame plaque.   (AP Photo/Tim Roske)
Rickey Henderson views plaques on a tour of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY, May 8, 2009.
Rickey Henderson views plaques on a tour of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY, May 8, 2009.   (AP Photo/Tim Roske)
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COMMENTS
Showing 1 of 1 comment
Mr.C
Jul 27, 2009 6:45 AM CDT
I'd say this is a good thing. I'm glad Bumbling Butterfingers isn't put into the hall of fame - the computer wouldn't predict that.

 
artificial intelligence • Cooperstown • Hall of Fame • Baseball Hall of Fame • baseball

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