As unbelievable as this sounds, given the huge crowds Barack Obama was able to drum up not so long ago, the Democrats could be losing the enthusiasm wars, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. A new poll from Virginia shows that in its upcoming gubernatorial race, 52% of voters will likely be people who backed McCain in November—even though McCain lost the state.
Democrats currently lead Republicans in party identification, 34% to 24%. But if health care and a losing streak have fired up, say, 60% of Republicans, while only 40% of Democrats are engaged, the left is in trouble. “Sometimes, American politics resembles a screaming contest,” Silver writes. “and Republicans—though fewer in number—are screaming a little louder right now.”