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Unemployment Will Probably Miss 10%: Silver

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Aug 10, 2009 11:52 AM CDT

(Newser) – Lots of economists are predicting that unemployment, which at last count hung at 9.4%, will hit 10% before the calendar changes, but Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com disagrees. For that to happen, the economy would need to lose another million jobs or so, and "the jobs picture is steadily brightening." Unfortunately, the math becomes complicated if the workforce expands.

Unemployment didn’t fall last month because the economy added jobs. It actually lost jobs, but the workforce decreased even more, as people stopped looking for work, or found alternatives like going back to school, retiring, or even enlisting. As the economy improves, they’ll return. Silver sees unemployment peaking in November at 9.6%, followed by "a steady, and actually fairly robust decline, with about 400,000 jobs being created each month by next summer."

Graphic charts monthly unemployment rate for the past 13 months.
Graphic charts monthly unemployment rate for the past 13 months.
Job seekers are seen 6th Annual Grand Slam Career Fair held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Wednesday, July 15, 2009.
Job seekers are seen 6th Annual Grand Slam Career Fair held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Wednesday, July 15, 2009.   (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 11 comments
Robert_Dada
Aug 11, 2009 12:48 PM CDT
You might want to thank your wonderful previous president for the conditions that led to this.
SilenceDogood
Aug 11, 2009 11:50 AM CDT
8% of our populace pays 92% of the income taxes for this nation. Probably 16% of out populace pays nothing at all and receives income from the 8%. Now tell me buffoon, how the rich are taking advantage of the poor. You remind me of the Nazi’s that kept repeating lies until they believed them.
SilenceDogood
Aug 11, 2009 11:28 AM CDT
I wish I could find fault with your observations, but any rational person would have to agree. The problem with doing so, is that we understand what is to come. Stagflation and a neutered government with a smiling jackass at the helm.

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