2010 Won't See Another Republican Revolution

Parallels with 1994 are exaggerated
By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff
Posted Sep 29, 2009 9:38 AM CDT
Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, shares a laugh with Harry Reid, Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the unveiling of Lott's portrait.   (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
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(Newser) – Hopeful Republicans are starting to play up the similarities between 1994 and 2010 but any talk of a second Republican Revolution is probably just wishful thinking, writes Ed Kilgore in the New Republic. The Republican capture of the House in '94 was made possible by retiring Democrats—some 22 of the 54 seats they picked up that year were open, while just four Democrat-held House seats will be open in "even vaguely competitive territory" next year, Kilgore writes.

The Senate looks even less likely to fall to resurgent Republicans than the House, Kilgore argues, since it would require the Dems to lose 11 seats while not recapturing a single one. The GOP also won't be getting a bounce from redistricting the way it did in 1994, and President Bush's failure to win over Hispanics means just about every demographic trend is going against the party. Demographics do offer the Republicans one glimmer of hope, notes Kilgore: older voters are lot more skeptical about President Obama than their younger counterparts—and a lot likelier to vote in midterm elections.