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2010 Won't See Another Republican Revolution

Parallels with 1994 are exaggerated

By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff

Posted Sep 29, 2009 9:38 AM CDT

(Newser) – Hopeful Republicans are starting to play up the similarities between 1994 and 2010 but any talk of a second Republican Revolution is probably just wishful thinking, writes Ed Kilgore in the New Republic. The Republican capture of the House in '94 was made possible by retiring Democrats—some 22 of the 54 seats they picked up that year were open, while just four Democrat-held House seats will be open in "even vaguely competitive territory" next year, Kilgore writes.

The Senate looks even less likely to fall to resurgent Republicans than the House, Kilgore argues, since it would require the Dems to lose 11 seats while not recapturing a single one. The GOP also won't be getting a bounce from redistricting the way it did in 1994, and President Bush's failure to win over Hispanics means just about every demographic trend is going against the party. Demographics do offer the Republicans one glimmer of hope, notes Kilgore: older voters are lot more skeptical about President Obama than their younger counterparts—and a lot likelier to vote in midterm elections.

Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, shares a laugh with Harry Reid,  Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell  at the unveiling of Lott's portrait.
Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, shares a laugh with Harry Reid, Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the unveiling of Lott's portrait.   (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
In this photo provided by CBS News, Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, speaks to the journalists following an appearance on CBS' Face the Nation, in Washington, Sunday, May 6, 2007.
In this photo provided by CBS News, Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, speaks to the journalists following an appearance on CBS' Face the Nation, in Washington, Sunday, May 6, 2007.   (AP Photo/CBS News, Karin Cooper)
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A cyclical turnover of ten House seats, which seems to be the most likely scenario in 2010, would not a revolution make. - Ed Kilgore

The ideological filtering of the parties is long over; any genuine conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans left in the electorate clearly have reasons for retaining their loyalties, which will be difficult to erode. - Ed Kilgore

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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 24 comments
LiberalJesus
Sep 29, 2009 7:31 AM CDT
What ideas will your party run on "dly'? Another "Contract with America" is already a dead fish. I hope that post wasnt too long and/or intricate for you. I dont see how I can make is any shorter for you.
godawgs
Sep 29, 2009 7:19 AM CDT
so are you racist and bigoted in real life or just online?
passinthru
Sep 29, 2009 6:26 AM CDT
REGARDLESS OF ALL THE BULLSHIT...republicans wont see a republican revolution in 2020 either...theyre done...besides the measly 6 trolls on this site, and 1/2 of the ignorant redneck population, the rest of the country sees through their bullshit.

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