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Computers Will Stop Getting Faster —in 75 Years

By John Johnson,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 10, 2009 12:17 PM CDT

(Newser) – Even Moore's Law has its limit. That's the much-cited dictum from Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that computer speed doubles every two years with ever-smaller and more powerful transistors. Two physicists crunched some numbers and found that the theory—which has held true for 40 years now—must eventually reach a "quantum limit," notes LiveScience. Their estimate? Give it another 75 to 80 years.

"No system can overcome that limit," says one of the Boston University physicists. "It doesn't depend on the physical nature of the system or how it's implemented, what algorithm you use for computation ... any choice of hardware and software. This bound poses an absolute law of nature, just like the speed of light."

Moore's Law will cease to apply in about 75 years, say two scientists.
Moore's Law will cease to apply in about 75 years, say two scientists.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, file)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 9 comments
Loafer
Oct 12, 2009 8:40 AM CDT
I remember in the early 1950's, John W. Campbell, editor of Astounding Science Fiction magazine, wrote an editorial about what scientists of 1930 would make of a jet plane transported through time to 1930. They might have been able to figure out how the jet engine worked (but not if it had been a ram jet rather than a turbojet), but the transistorized electronics would not have make any sense to them -- they wouldn't even have had the tools to detect the required impurities in the germanium crystals. Their best analytical tools would have seen it as incredibly pure germanium. However, I do believe there can be absolute limits.
cochiserocks
Oct 11, 2009 12:33 PM CDT
For sure - no way to limit and quantify or accurately predict lateral movement - only linear progressions.
Jeebus
Oct 11, 2009 9:30 AM CDT
In 75 years, I'll be long dead, so I don't care.

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