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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2009
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Computers Will Stop Getting Faster —in 75 Years

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(Newser) – Even Moore's Law has its limit. That's the much-cited dictum from Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that computer speed doubles every two years with ever-smaller and more powerful transistors. Two physicists crunched some numbers and found that the theory—which has held true for 40 years now—must eventually reach a "quantum limit," notes LiveScience. Their estimate? Give it another 75 to 80 years.

"No system can overcome that limit," says one of the Boston University physicists. "It doesn't depend on the physical nature of the system or how it's implemented, what algorithm you use for computation ... any choice of hardware and software. This bound poses an absolute law of nature, just like the speed of light."

Moore's Law will cease to apply in about 75 years, say two scientists.
Moore's Law will cease to apply in about 75 years, say two scientists.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, file)
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OG_Travis
Oct 10, 09 1:05 PM CDT
his assumption is flawed he isn't taking into account new developments storing information in dna and the actual computations possible on a quantum level. it's only a slight guess based on MOST of the advancements we've already and to ponder the state of processing power even 20 years from now is pointless. there are breakthroughs we can't fathom coming in just the next 5 years that will revolutionize computers. i guess only time will tell :) Reply
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+15
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SalParadise
Oct 10, 09 1:24 PM CDT
You're exactly right. He's speculating about three quarters of a century down the line. Now, think where technology was in 1934. If you really think about it for more than a few seconds, this is painfully obvious.
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+6
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riffran
Oct 10, 09 1:30 PM CDT
Exactly...but they are partially right, with the tech pathway they are currently using, there is a limit...BUT with quantum computing (still only a partial reality, but getting closer), the methodology is vastly different. If I understand it correctly, our current way is with calculation per second, but still in a linear fashion, step one then step two then ....ect. With quantum computing it is supposed to be millions of calculation simultaneously..the theoretical limit is bordering on sci-fi
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+1
IN RESPONSE:
HeatherCC09
Oct 10, 09 3:01 PM CDT
Exactly. It is challenging to project what advances in human interface architectures will emerge over the next 20 to 25 years that will enhance overall computer speed. At this point i time it is virtually pointless to try to forecast how data will flow into, through, and out of late 21st century computers let alone how fast their CPUs will be.
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+2
IN RESPONSE:
cochiserocks
Oct 11, 09 7:33 AM CDT
For sure - no way to limit and quantify or accurately predict lateral movement - only linear progressions.
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