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AIDS Vaccine Data Overstated

Much-hyped Thai results statistically insignificant, researchers say

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 20, 2009 2:36 PM CDT

(Newser) – The data from last month’s much-hyped Thai AIDS vaccine trial are actually statistically insignificant, according to a secondary analysis published today in the New England Journal of Medicine. The original results from the trial, which included more than 16,000 people, concluded that the vaccine reduced infections by a statistically significant 31%. But the secondary analysis said it reduced infections only 26%, which could have happened by mere chance.

“The results are weak enough that we need to be very careful about assigning too much optimism to them,” said one UCLA immunologist. “It seems not so likely that the vaccine really did what it was intended to do.” The trial had combined two vaccines that had both proven ineffective previously. But one researcher said that the results could still be mined for information “of potentially great importance to the field.”

A Thai Buddhist monk talks to an AIDS/HIV patient at Wat Phrabatnampo AIDS hospice in Lopburi province, Thailand, Friday Sept. 25, 2009.
A Thai Buddhist monk talks to an AIDS/HIV patient at Wat Phrabatnampo AIDS hospice in Lopburi province, Thailand, Friday Sept. 25, 2009.   (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)
A Thai technician works on blood samples of volunteers at a lab at the Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences in Bangkok, Thailand Friday, Sept. 25, 2009.
A Thai technician works on blood samples of volunteers at a lab at the Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences in Bangkok, Thailand Friday, Sept. 25, 2009.   (AP Photo/Apichart Weerawong)
A researcher tests a vaccine combination in the Thai phase III HIV Vaccine Trial, also known as RV 144 in this undated file photo.
A researcher tests a vaccine combination in the Thai phase III HIV Vaccine Trial, also known as RV 144 in this undated file photo.   (AP Photo/MHRP)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 9 comments
yummines
Oct 21, 2009 7:10 AM CDT
yea, that's what i thought. to me it seems that even 10% would be significant, considering that HIV/AIDS was and still is a major problem in the world...
kyleleitch
Oct 21, 2009 6:16 AM CDT
Exactly. It seems like people get lost in the statistical insignificance of it, when historically, is IS significant. Like davjc, while he makes a great point, it still isn't THE point: that progress is being made and this is a lot of progress given the lack of progress that's been made so far.
davjc09
Oct 20, 2009 9:01 AM CDT
A central tenet of research is statistical significance. And 26% in this case is not significant. It's like saying that I flipped a coin 10 times and got nine heads and one tails. It sounds like I can make it go heads more times than not, but those results in the grander scheme of flipping a coin will inevitably go to 50-50.

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