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TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2010
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 ANALYSIS 
65

Palin Will Be the 2012 Nominee

Winner-take-all primaries favor unpopular Palin

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(Newser) – She may be hugely polarizing, but Sarah Palin’s the odds-on favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, thanks to the party’s winner-take-all primary system. The party establishment may not want Palin, but if she can maintain, say, 35% support in a multi-candidate field, she could win a few states and rack up an insurmountable lead early, Walter Shapiro of Politics Daily writes.

Normally the GOP counts on South Carolina to weed out fringe candidates, but Palin is mainstream enough to win the conservative state. So if party insiders don’t want another Goldwater on their hands, they’ll either have to rally around another candidate—which isn’t likely given the egos involved—or change the primary system to a proportional one like the Democrats use, and risk a long, damaging battle.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin serves the public hot dogs before officially resigning during the annual Governor's Picnic July 26, 2009 at Pioneer Park in Fairbanks, Alaska.
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin serves the public hot dogs before officially resigning during the annual Governor's Picnic July 26, 2009 at Pioneer Park in Fairbanks, Alaska.   (Getty Images)
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The Republican establishment could all agree that Palin would be an electoral disaster against Obama in November and still be powerless to halt her juggernaut. - Walter Shapiro

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65 comments
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Doctor_Supercilious
Nov 16, 09 11:41 AM CST
Now that's...Mavericky! Reply
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+19
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gnieberg
Nov 16, 09 11:49 AM CST
I sincerly hope not. Not because I think she has any shot at winning (because I don't) but I don't think it's helpful for our deomcracy for the political opposition to be a non-starter ideologue like Sarah Palin. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. While I generally side with President Obama on most issues and have faith he will stay what he's always been (a moderate through and through) he really will be able to do whatever he wants if his competition is Sarah "quit on Alaska & can't answer simple questions about newspapers I've read" Palin. Even if I don't agree with what Republicans have to offer, when they're acting like reasonable people (which has been a long time) they at least help frame the debate around the issues reasonable people can disagree on, fosters respectful and thoughful debate, and thus legitimizes any decisions that are made.
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+11
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DontLikeYou
Nov 16, 09 11:51 AM CST
This comment has been removed by Newser’s community.
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-19
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thudson
Nov 16, 09 11:53 AM CST
i'd be stunned if she actually gets the GOP nomination. i'm sure there are more viable candidates in their party.
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+11
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divetrader
Nov 16, 09 11:55 AM CST
Ok Doctor_Zaius, its dead. Stop beating it. I laughed at all of them until now. The point is still well made, but find something new.
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-7
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