1% Warming Chance Is Cause Enough to Act

'Cheney Doctrine' should apply to climate change

By Rob Quinn, Newser Staff

Posted Dec 9, 2009 1:22 AM CST

(Newser) – Dick Cheney once said that a 1% chance of al-Qaeda obtaining a nuke was reason enough to prepare for it, and that same logic should be applied to catastrophic global warming, writes Thomas L. Friedman. Despite "Climategate," the chances look a lot higher than 1%, he notes in the New York Times. But in any case, global warming should be treated as a "low-probability, high-impact event" that we urgently need to prepare for, Friedman writes.

If we build a clean-power economy and climate change turns out to be a hoax, then we have gained cleaner air, energy independence, and a stronger economy at the expense of higher energy prices during the transition period, Friedman writes. But if it "turns out to be real, life on this planet could become a living hell. And that’s why I’m for doing the Cheney-thing on climate—preparing for 1%."

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Predicting climate patterns is "a game of odds" but even a 1% chance of losing that game is too much of a risk to take, writes Friedman. (AP Photo/John McConnico)

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When I see a problem that has even a 1% probability of occurring and is 'irreversible' and potentially 'catastrophic,' I buy insurance. That is what taking climate change seriously is all about. - Thomas L. Friedman

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1% Warming Chance Is Cause Enough to Act