Based on an analysis of Olympics projections from across the board, the US could come out on top of the medal count at this year’s games for the first time since Lake Placid—in 1932. Nate Silver averaged medal projections from 9 sources; after two days the US has medaled 6 times, which is 3.3 more than was expected. That puts the final projection at 32.9, barely topping Canada, at 32.8.
Canada, which has never lead the medals haul, is on its pace, notes Silver on FiveThirtyEight, having won 3 medals so far. Germany is also just about on the line to win its projected 31.7. Behind the neck-and-neck frontrunners are Norway and Austria, which are two medals off their expected count and "would need a miracle to come back." At the bottom of the heap is a success story: Slovakia, whose 1 medal so far has increased its projected haul to...1 medal.