Republicans are probably going to gain ground in 2010, but oddsmakers giving them a 30% chance to retake the Senate are crazy, according to Nate Silver. Sure, you can see the scenario in which the Republicans could gain the 10 seats they need—they’re favored to pick up Democratic seats in around seven races, and even have a shot in some blue states. But they also have to defend their own seats, and that could be tough.
“Clearly, 2010 will be to some greater or lesser extent an anti-Democratic year,” Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight. “The question is to what extent it might also be an anti-incumbent year.” Many Senate Republicans seem like part of the establishment, and this is an anti-establishment year. Plus, “unlike in 1994, the GOP remains quite unpopular,” Silver notes, and it’s fractured, too—we could see inexperienced or too-conservative candidates emerge from several primaries