Nate Silver: Bet on Health Bill to Pass
Barring catastrophe, reform should pass
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Mar 19, 2010 6:20 AM CDT
Updated Mar 19, 2010 7:36 AM CDT
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.   (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)

(Newser) – The smart money is on health care reform passing this weekend, writes Nate Silver. It's becoming clear that there are not enough "hard no's"—representatives who will vote against the bill no matter what—to keep Nancy Pelosi from getting her 216 votes. The only task left is to woo enough "soft no's"—those who would prefer to vote against the bill but will back it in a pinch—to reach the magic number, and that's now a safe bet.

Democrats have "both the momentum and the math" in their favor, writes Silver at It's not impossible for some unforeseen disaster to strike, but it's unlikely. "For what it's worth, the Intrade contract, which is trading at 75% right now, now looks about right to me or perhaps even a hair pessimistic. "