predictions

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Hillary's Chances of Winning, per Nate Silver: 79%

Though he concedes 'there's a lot of football left to be played'

(Newser) - If you're looking for odds on what's going to happen in Election 2016, you can ask a Las Vegas bookie or Nate Silver. And according to what the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers whiz told George Stephanopoulos on Wednesday's Good Morning America , Hillary Clinton has an almost 80% chance... More »

Bunny, Manatees, Porcupine Predict Super Bowl Winner

But the animals can't agree

(Newser) - One way or another, a horse or a bird is going home with the Lombardi Trophy for Super Bowl XLVIII. The big game between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks is just around the corner, and it's the first Super Bowl to be played on Groundhog Day, so what... More »

Tech Predictions for 2013

Expect more tablets, smarter TVs

(Newser) - Veteran tech writer Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal looks ahead to 2013 and thinks we'll be controlling more of our everyday devices (thermostats, appliances, etc.) wirelessly through apps. We're heading toward a world of "Internet-controlled everything." Other forecasts:
  • Tablets: The market is only
... More »

Shamans in Peru: Obama's Got It

But astrologers say Mercury Retrograde could make things messy

(Newser) - Forget the pundits and statisticians : To find out who's really going to win the election, some are turning to shamans and psychics. In Peru, shamans have called a winner: President Obama. They came to the conclusion after chewing coca leaves, drinking a hallucinogenic brew called ayahuasca, and putting flower... More »

Nate Silver: Obama's Shot at Winning: 91.6%

Other pundits offer wide range of outcomes

(Newser) - It's Election Day—a day of reckoning not only for the candidates, but for America's pundits, including one recent lightning rod named Nate Silver. Silver's final prediction: President Obama has a 91.6% shot at winning, to Romney's 8.4%, though he emphasizes he expects a... More »

Romney Win a Sure Thing: Election Model

Model based on economy would have correctly predicted last 8 elections

(Newser) - Forget polls. If you want to know who's going to win in November, it's the economy, stupid. A new prediction model based on state-by-state economic data predicts that Mitt Romney will prevail with 320 electoral votes, snapping up nearly all of the key swing states, to President Obama'... More »

10 Predictions for Next Century

We'll probably see fewer wars but way more pollution: MIT economist

(Newser) - What will humans be up to in 100 years? MIT economist Daron Acemoglu delved into the patterns and trends of history to conjure up 10 predictions for our social, political, and economic status a century from now. A sampling, from Business Insider : More »

Next Japanese Tsunami: More Than Twice as High

A 9.0 earthquake could trigger 112-foot tsunami

(Newser) - Much of Japan's Pacific coast could be inundated by a tsunami more than 115 feet high if a powerful earthquake hits offshore, according to revised estimates by a government panel. The panel of experts says any tsunami unleashed by a magnitude-9.0 earthquake in the Nankai trough, which runs... More »

20 Predictions for Life in 100 Years

Futurologists discuss thought communication, global currency

(Newser) - The world 100 years from now: What will it look like? What will humans be up to? What will robots be up to? BBC News collected century-long forecasts from readers, then let futurologists Ian Pearson and Patrick Tucker evaluate the predictions. A selection from the top 20: More »

In Iowa, Expect the Unexpected

...And a lot of spin afterward

(Newser) - History suggests that it doesn’t matter who actually wins tonight in Iowa—it matters who exceeds expectations, or fails to meet them. The media is always flabbergasted by strange Iowa finishes, but they shouldn’t be, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times , because thanks to unreliable polls... More »

Obama Is the Underdog

If economy falters, and Mitt Romney is the nominee, watch out

(Newser) - It’s too early for Nate Silver’s usual granular state-by-state election calculus, so the New York Times political prediction guru is looking at the big picture. Obama faces three main challenges: voters think he’s not up to the task, they’re terrified of the economy, and they’re... More »

Always-Right Formula Says Obama Wins 2nd Term

And a look at the 13 'keys' to success

(Newser) - Looks like President Obama can stop worrying about the 2012 election—it’s a done deal, according to American University professor Allan Lichtman. “Even if I am being conservative I don’t see how Obama can lose,” he tells US News . Lichtman has a simple system for determining... More »

Endless Oscar Predictions Ruining the Show

Film critic: The problem is that they're usually right

(Newser) - As the film critic for the Los Angeles Times , Kenneth Turan loves the Oscars. But he hates the nonstop barrage of predictions that bombard us ahead of the show. His beef "is not that the pundits are often wrong but, frankly, that they are often right," he says.... More »

Only 12% Chance We'll Return to Recession

Forecast fastest expansion in years on consumer spending

(Newser) - Economists are growing more optimistic about this year’s climate, predicting it will expand at its fastest pace since 2003, the Wall Street Journal reports. The paper polled 51 economists. Among the highlights:
  • Economists see only a 12% risk of returning to recession, compared to 22% in September.
  • In the
... More »

January 17 Will Be Saddest Day of 2011

So say the social researchers

(Newser) - Get the tissues handy: The saddest day of the year approaches. One researcher pegs that as Jan. 17 for a host of reasons—the presents are gone, the bills are due, the resolutions are busted, it's cold ... you get the picture. The New York Post rounds up that and other... More »

Your Cell Phone Will Project Holograms in 5 Years

... assuming IBM's scientists are correct

(Newser) - Mobile phones will be able to project 3D holograms in 2015, allowing people to video-chat with virtual images of their friends, say scientists at IBM. In their annual list of tech predictions, the scientists also say:
  • Today's lithium-ion batteries will be replaced with those that run on air and last
... More »

These Predictions for 2010 Were Way Off

They said iPads wouldn't make it, but Google Wave would

(Newser) - The media gave us plenty of predictions for 2010, and plenty of them simply didn’t come true. AOL News lists some of the most glaring:
  • Job growth will begin again. Newsweek predicted it unemployment would fall “below 9%,” but it was never less than 9.5%.
  • Republicans
... More »

Worst Prognostications of the Year

Joe Biden and Meghan McCain make the list

(Newser) - A roundup of the year's worst predictions from Joshua Keating at Foreign Policy .
  • Recovery summer: Joe Biden's statement in June that "more people are going to be put to work this summer" puts him atop Keating's list of of know-it-all pundits and pols who ended up with egg on
... More »

No Way to Predict Size of GOP Gains

'Strange election' offers wide range of outcomes, says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Polls are showing a huge range of possible results for tomorrow, with generic ballots suggesting anything from a 15-point Republican lead to a 3-point Democratic lead. “The fact is that there’s not really any way to say who’s right,” writes FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver in... More »

11 Simpsons Predictions That Came True

Yucky soy snacks? Check. Crazy celebrities? Got 'em.

(Newser) - During its sixth season in 1995, The Simpsons gazed into the future—specifically, 2010—in the “Lisa’s Wedding” episode. Writing at 11points.com , Sam Greenspan lists 11 things about this year the episode got right:
  • Soy snacks: Not only did the show predict their popularity, it also “
... More »

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