predictions

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Analysts: Sorry, but We May Have a Global Crisis This Year

Eurasia Group lays out a bunch of ways it might happen

(Newser) - Given that "the global order is unraveling" in "a world without leadership," Eurasia Group has some sorry news: "If we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis—the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown—it feels like 2018." What kind of... More »

Financial Experts Make 5 Predictions for 2018

On everything from IPOs to the S&P 500

(Newser) - It's that time of year when financial experts are asked to dust off their crystal balls and tea leaves and offer up their predictions for the economy in 2018. At Yahoo Finance , David Nelson warns that the problem with these predictions is that experts tend to extrapolate, i.e.... More »

Coming in 2018: Plugged-In Grandmas

And 9 other predictions, in AI, health care, the economy, and more

(Newser) - At no time of year do more people whip out the "out with the old and in with the new" mantra than on Jan. 1, and LinkedIn has surveyed CEOs, economists, scholars, and "other bold thinkers" to see what changes they expect to see worldwide in 2018. These... More »

An Upset for Moonlight? Oscar Preview and Predictions

Will 'Moonlight' upset 'La La Land'

(Newser) - The Academy Awards are on Sunday, and Slate notes it could be a history-making night at Hollywood's Dolby Theatre. In one development that might make some headway against previous "Oscars So White" backlash , 18 black performers and filmmakers are nominated this year, including Moonlight director Barry Jenkins (who... More »

Soothsayer Busted for Predicting President's Demise

Probably wasn't a good idea to say Maithripala Sirisena was going to die

(Newser) - An astrologer who made several predictions that Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena would die has been arrested and released on bail, police said Wednesday, per the AP . Most Sri Lankans follow astrologers' advice, and the suspect, Vijitha Rohana Wijemuni, is a former navy sailor convicted of attempting to assassinate India'... More »

Hillary's Chances of Winning, per Nate Silver: 79%

Though he concedes 'there's a lot of football left to be played'

(Newser) - If you're looking for odds on what's going to happen in Election 2016, you can ask a Las Vegas bookie or Nate Silver. And according to what the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers whiz told George Stephanopoulos on Wednesday's Good Morning America , Hillary Clinton has an almost 80% chance... More »

Bunny, Manatees, Porcupine Predict Super Bowl Winner

But the animals can't agree

(Newser) - One way or another, a horse or a bird is going home with the Lombardi Trophy for Super Bowl XLVIII. The big game between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks is just around the corner, and it's the first Super Bowl to be played on Groundhog Day, so what... More »

Tech Predictions for 2013

Expect more tablets, smarter TVs

(Newser) - Veteran tech writer Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal looks ahead to 2013 and thinks we'll be controlling more of our everyday devices (thermostats, appliances, etc.) wirelessly through apps. We're heading toward a world of "Internet-controlled everything." Other forecasts:
  • Tablets: The market is only
... More »

Shamans in Peru: Obama's Got It

But astrologers say Mercury Retrograde could make things messy

(Newser) - Forget the pundits and statisticians : To find out who's really going to win the election, some are turning to shamans and psychics. In Peru, shamans have called a winner: President Obama. They came to the conclusion after chewing coca leaves, drinking a hallucinogenic brew called ayahuasca, and putting flower... More »

Nate Silver: Obama's Shot at Winning: 91.6%

Other pundits offer wide range of outcomes

(Newser) - It's Election Day—a day of reckoning not only for the candidates, but for America's pundits, including one recent lightning rod named Nate Silver. Silver's final prediction: President Obama has a 91.6% shot at winning, to Romney's 8.4%, though he emphasizes he expects a... More »

Romney Win a Sure Thing: Election Model

Model based on economy would have correctly predicted last 8 elections

(Newser) - Forget polls. If you want to know who's going to win in November, it's the economy, stupid. A new prediction model based on state-by-state economic data predicts that Mitt Romney will prevail with 320 electoral votes, snapping up nearly all of the key swing states, to President Obama'... More »

10 Predictions for Next Century

We'll probably see fewer wars but way more pollution: MIT economist

(Newser) - What will humans be up to in 100 years? MIT economist Daron Acemoglu delved into the patterns and trends of history to conjure up 10 predictions for our social, political, and economic status a century from now. A sampling, from Business Insider : More »

Next Japanese Tsunami: More Than Twice as High

A 9.0 earthquake could trigger 112-foot tsunami

(Newser) - Much of Japan's Pacific coast could be inundated by a tsunami more than 115 feet high if a powerful earthquake hits offshore, according to revised estimates by a government panel. The panel of experts says any tsunami unleashed by a magnitude-9.0 earthquake in the Nankai trough, which runs... More »

20 Predictions for Life in 100 Years

Futurologists discuss thought communication, global currency

(Newser) - The world 100 years from now: What will it look like? What will humans be up to? What will robots be up to? BBC News collected century-long forecasts from readers, then let futurologists Ian Pearson and Patrick Tucker evaluate the predictions. A selection from the top 20: More »

In Iowa, Expect the Unexpected

...And a lot of spin afterward

(Newser) - History suggests that it doesn’t matter who actually wins tonight in Iowa—it matters who exceeds expectations, or fails to meet them. The media is always flabbergasted by strange Iowa finishes, but they shouldn’t be, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times , because thanks to unreliable polls... More »

Obama Is the Underdog

If economy falters, and Mitt Romney is the nominee, watch out

(Newser) - It’s too early for Nate Silver’s usual granular state-by-state election calculus, so the New York Times political prediction guru is looking at the big picture. Obama faces three main challenges: voters think he’s not up to the task, they’re terrified of the economy, and they’re... More »

Always-Right Formula Says Obama Wins 2nd Term

And a look at the 13 'keys' to success

(Newser) - Looks like President Obama can stop worrying about the 2012 election—it’s a done deal, according to American University professor Allan Lichtman. “Even if I am being conservative I don’t see how Obama can lose,” he tells US News . Lichtman has a simple system for determining... More »

Endless Oscar Predictions Ruining the Show

Film critic: The problem is that they're usually right

(Newser) - As the film critic for the Los Angeles Times , Kenneth Turan loves the Oscars. But he hates the nonstop barrage of predictions that bombard us ahead of the show. His beef "is not that the pundits are often wrong but, frankly, that they are often right," he says.... More »

Only 12% Chance We'll Return to Recession

Forecast fastest expansion in years on consumer spending

(Newser) - Economists are growing more optimistic about this year’s climate, predicting it will expand at its fastest pace since 2003, the Wall Street Journal reports. The paper polled 51 economists. Among the highlights:
  • Economists see only a 12% risk of returning to recession, compared to 22% in September.
  • In the
... More »

January 17 Will Be Saddest Day of 2011

So say the social researchers

(Newser) - Get the tissues handy: The saddest day of the year approaches. One researcher pegs that as Jan. 17 for a host of reasons—the presents are gone, the bills are due, the resolutions are busted, it's cold ... you get the picture. The New York Post rounds up that and other... More »

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