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Trump's Chance of Getting to 270 Is Shrinking

Polls suggest he's in trouble in crucial states

(Newser) - Friday morning brings another spate of Donald Trump stories. Some of the big ones generating headlines:
  • Trump's path to victory is in trouble based on the latest polls in North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while the campaign seems to have given up entirely on Virginia. "It's hard
... More »

Polls: Trump, Clinton Basically Tied in 2 Swing States

Hillary has 1-point lead in Pennsylvania, Trump in Colorado

(Newser) - New CNN/ORC polls released Monday have Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump practically in a dead heat in two battleground states, with just one point separating the two, CNN reports. In Colorado , Trump is the one in the lead, nabbing 42% of likely voters to Clinton's 41% (Libertarian Gary Johnson... More »

As Debate Nears, Clinton Leads by 6 Points

But FiveThirtyEight says she can't claim a rebound quite yet

(Newser) - For those not yet suffering from poll fatigue, new results are out right before the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Monday. Per an NBC News /Wall Street Journal poll, its first general-election survey of likely voters, Clinton leads Trump by 6 points. The poll was taken... More »

2 Polls, 2 Significantly Different Results

One major poll puts Trump ahead by 2 points—but electoral college poll gives solid advantage to Clinton

(Newser) - Ever-shifting polls have offered a sometimes-confusing picture of this year's presidential race, with CNN noting Hillary Clinton has taken the lead over Donald Trump more often than not. But a new CNN-ORC poll of 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters, taken between Sept. 1 and Sept. 4,... More »

Trump Lawyer on Negative Polls: 'Says Who?'

'Which polls?' he asks in awkward interview

(Newser) - Donald Trump's lawyer has apparently decided that it's his turn to make the gaffes. In an interview with CNN Wednesday, notoriously combative Trump Organization attorney Michael Cohen interrupted host Brianna Keilar when she said that the campaign was "down," Politico reports. "Says who?" he asked.... More »

Trump Catches Clinton in National Polls: What It Means

The key thing to keep in mind: It's only May

(Newser) - Not too long ago, Hillary Clinton held double-digit leads over Donald Trump in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup. Trump, however, has now actually edged ahead of her in an average of national polls compiled at RealClearPolitics . The development has prompted all kinds of analysis. Some highlights:
  • "Mr. Trump has made
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Cruz Trounces Trump in New Iowa Poll

Texas senator can likely thank Dr. Ben Carson for his new 5-point lead

(Newser) - Ben Carson's loss may be Ted Cruz's gain—and responsible for the new thorn in Donald Trump's side, at least in Iowa. The Texas senator zipped ahead of Trump in a new Monmouth University poll released Monday, the New York Times reports. Cruz, who garnered support... More »

'The Doctor Sinks' in New Quinnipiac Poll

Ben Carson falls 7 points to 3rd place, with 16% to Trump's 27%

(Newser) - While nothing seems to be able to topple Donald "Teflon Don" Trump, Ben Carson isn't enjoying the same kind of luck. The former neurosurgeon plummeted 7 percentage points in a newly released Quinnipiac University poll , falling to third place with 16%, Politico reports. Meanwhile, Trump absorbed 3 points,... More »

There's a New Leader of GOP Pack: Ben Carson

Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in new national poll

(Newser) - Lindsey Graham is probably still shaking his befuddled head after results from the latest national poll showing who's in the lead for the GOP nomination. This time it's Ben Carson on top, per a CBS News/New York Times poll, showing that the retired neurosurgeon has obviously not taken... More »

GOP's New No. 2 Candidate: Carly Fiorina

She surges in new poll to trail only Trump

(Newser) - Carly Fiorina's rave reviews in the latest debate are translating to the polls: She now trails only Donald Trump in a new CNN/ORC survey of Republican voters. Trump still leads with 24%, ahead of Fiorina at 15% and Ben Carson at 14%, but her numbers in that trio of... More »

Clinton and Trump's Hot New Rival: Deez Nuts

Independent 'candidate' is 15-year-old from Iowa doing surprisingly well in polls

(Newser) - Before this week, Deez Nuts was nothing more than an Internet meme . Now Deez Nuts has turned into a different kind of sensation : a top-polling independent presidential candidate against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. In a Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina released yesterday, 40% of voters would pull... More »

Nate Silver: Our Political Polls Are in Lousy Shape

UK elections are just the latest example, he writes

(Newser) - Polls predicted a close election in the UK, and the polls were dead wrong . What happened? "The World May Have a Polling Problem," asserts the headline of a post by poll-assessing whiz Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com . His site's forecast, based on those lousy polls, was way... More »

Weiner, Spitzer Leading Polls

New poll finds scandal-plagued candidates are leading primary races

(Newser) - Perhaps any publicity really is good publicity. Despite their high-profile sex scandals—or maybe because of them—both Anthony Weiner and Eliot Spitzer are leading their respective Democratic primary races, according to a new poll by Quinnipiac University. The poll of 738 Democratic voters found 25% supported Weiner for mayor... More »

The 12 Things Nearly All Americans Agree On

Surveys show most of us believe in God, are OK with birth control

(Newser) - What can nine out of 10 Americans agree on? Survey says: not much. That's partly because the big polls such as Pew, Gallup, and the General Social Survey are designed to explore differences, not to document what unites the United States. Still, a few questions discover 90% agreement, or... More »

Nate Silver: I'll Stop if I Start Swaying Elections

Stats whiz says he doesn't want to influence voters

(Newser) - Nate Silver may have cemented his reputation as a political forecaster in the last election, but he doesn't want his reading of the polls to influence flesh-and-blood voters. And if it does, he might pull the plug on his FiveThirtyEight blog , reports Student Life , the college paper at Washington... More »

Scarborough to Nate Silver: I'm Sorry, Sorta

Admits Silver was right, but still calls early predictions a 'fool's errand'

(Newser) - Joe Scarborough is ready to give what he calls a "(semi) apology" to pollster Nate Silver. The two tussled over whether Silver's ultimately accurate early election predictions were appropriate in a race that Scarborough felt was "in flux" at the time. But after talking with Silver on... More »

In a First, Romney Cracks 50% in ABC/Post Poll

He widens lead among white voters, makes gains on economy

(Newser) - Maybe his momentum isn't slowing after all. A new poll by ABC and the Washington Post puts Mitt Romney up 50-47 on President Obama, which is within the margin of error but marks the first time Romney has hit the 50% mark. Among the reasons for his stronger showing:... More »

I'm Addicted to Polls

But, writes David Brooks, he really shouldn't be

(Newser) - David Brooks has a confession to make: "Hello, my name is David, and I’m a pollaholic," he writes in the New York Times , revealing that he's spent hundreds of hours over the past few months obsessing over any and every election poll he can find, checking... More »

Obama Leading —a Bit—in Slew of New Polls

But Romney not far behind as first debate looms

(Newser) - In the final hours before the first presidential debate of the 2012 election, a host of new polls to consider:
  • President Obama has a significant lead in the battleground state of Ohio, 51% to Mitt Romney's 43%, according to an NBC News /Wall Street Journal poll. That's been
... More »

Romney Camp: We're Not Losing

Sources scramble to hose down good poll news for Obama

(Newser) - Mitt Romney's campaign was scrambling yesterday to reverse any impression that the candidate might be slipping into election oblivion. A GOP campaign pollster conceded that, yes, maybe President Obama got a bounce out of the Democratic National Convention, but he warned voters not to get "too worked up... More »

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