9 Stories

At Heart of InTrade Mystery: $2.6M Paid to Dead Founder

2010-'11 payouts not sufficiently documented

(Newser) - Betting site InTrade has shut down abruptly and its founder might have some tough questions to answer—if he hadn't died during a 2011 attempt to climb Mount Everest. A recent audit found that the Dublin-based company made $2.6 million in "insufficiently documented payments" to founder John... More »

InTrade Abruptly Shuts Down

No word whether the move is permanent

(Newser) - InTrade, the Ireland-based betting site on which you could wager on the presidential election and other non-sports events, abruptly shut down yesterday, AllThingsD reports. An official statement on the website cites possible "financial irregularities" that require it to cease operations, but does not give any details. The move, which... More »

Top 5 Picks for Romney Running Mate

Marco Rubio, Chris Christie lead Intrade's bets

(Newser) - There's no way of knowing who will join Mitt Romney on the GOP ticket—but Intrade is willing to guess. The online futures site offers odds on various contenders, and the Daily Beast takes a look at the top five:
  1. Marco Rubio, 24.9%. The Florida senator is a
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Gingrich's Stock Plunges on InTrade

Betters only give him a 14% chance

(Newser) - If you had to put your money on it, would you bet that Newt Gingrich will win the Republican nomination? If so, you're in the minority. After days of punishing attacks, Gingrich's odds of victory on InTrade have plummeted, observes Zeke Miller of Business Insider . At one point,... More »

Romney Dips Below 50% on Intrade for First Time

As Newt Gingrich creeps up on him at odds website

(Newser) - Business Insider takes note of a milestone of sorts in the Republican race: Mitt Romney dropped below 50% for the first time today at Intrade , the site that allows people to wager on predictions. Romney slipped to 49.3% this morning, down from 70% at the start of the... More »

Want Predictions? Bet on Markets, Not Polls

Mapping the future by getting investors to put their money on it is more accurate

(Newser) - Opinion polls have a spotty track record when it comes to predicting political events, Paul Parsons writes in the Telegraph. He recommends a clearer crystal ball: futures markets, such as the University of Iowa’s Electronic Market. Functionally the same as a financial market, IEM allows individuals to bet between... More »

Traders Bet On McCain vs. Obama

Frontrunners look like primary winners in prediction markets

(Newser) - Traders in online prediction markets are betting on Barack Obama and John McCain as the winners in their respective primaries today. The Intrade and Iowa Electronic futures markets let traders wager real money on outcomes political and otherwise; both markets give Obama's chances for winning the nomination as almost 80%,... More »

Bookies Pay Out on Longshot Clinton Bets

At 100-to-1, Hillary's victory startles political gambling websites

(Newser) - Clinton supporters of an apolitical kind had reason to celebrate after her surprise win in New Hampshire: bettors on a Hillary victory reaped huge payoffs after her odds dropped to a low of 100-to-1. Bloomberg reports that the Dublin-based Intrade had made an Obama result a near certainty, leaving contrarians... More »

Futures Market Predicts Libby Pardon

Online traders put their money on Scooter walking

(Newser) - Traders at the online market betting big that President Bush will pardon Scooter Libby.  CNN reports that at the "prediction market," where people buy and sell futures contracts on real-world events, 63 percent of traders are bullish on the prospect of Libby receiving a pardon... More »

9 Stories