electoral college

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2 Polls, 2 Significantly Different Results

One major poll puts Trump ahead by 2 points—but electoral college poll gives solid advantage to Clinton

(Newser) - Ever-shifting polls have offered a sometimes-confusing picture of this year's presidential race, with CNN noting Hillary Clinton has taken the lead over Donald Trump more often than not. But a new CNN-ORC poll of 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters, taken between Sept. 1 and Sept. 4,... More »

Virginia Senate Kills Bill to Alter Electoral College

Bid to change winner-take-all system is shelved for now

(Newser) - The GOP's push to muck with the Electoral College hit a major stumbling block yesterday, when a Virginia state Senate committee shelved a bill that would have allotted the state's electoral votes by congressional district. Republicans in swing states around the country are pushing similar bills, but Virginia'... More »

GOP Moves to Scrap Winner-Take-All Voting

Virginia poised to vote on changes next week; other states considering

(Newser) - Republicans in swing states that went for President Obama are pushing for a big change in how the Electoral College works, reports the Washington Post . The idea is to apportion electoral votes according to congressional district, instead of the winner-take-all system that most states employ. In Virginia, for example, the... More »

Nate Silver: Why I'm Right

Polling guru explains why his argument is the simplest

(Newser) - Barack Obama's odds of victory ticked up to 80.9% today in Nate Silver's projection model, a fact unlikely to sit well with Silver's growing legion of Republican detractors. While no one is arguing that Mitt Romney is the favorite, some—like Joe Scarborough—are arguing the... More »

How the Presidential Election Could End in a Tie

There are several ways, and they're not that farfetched: Real Clear Politics

(Newser) - Surprise, surprise: Yet another poll, this one by the Washington Post , shows the presidential race to be a statistical dead heat. What about an electoral dead heat? Real Clear Politics crunches the numbers and comes up with several ways that Mitt Romney and President Obama could be tied at 269... More »

Hispanics Key to 2012 Electoral Map

And things aren't looking good for Mitt Romney

(Newser) - If he wants to win in November, Mitt Romney will need to make giant strides among Hispanics, and he knows it. A failure to do so "spells doom for us," he was caught saying at a fundraiser. President Obama already appears to have a large electoral-vote lead—247... More »

Who's Winning, State by State

Obama's 2008 wins could bring success in 2012

(Newser) - If President Obama can retain most of the states he won in 2008, his general election prospects look good. But it's by no means a done deal, an AP analysis shows. As it stands, the Democrats appear to have 186 electoral votes in the bag; Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and... More »

2012 Election Hinges on 4 States

Maybe five if Florida stays in play

(Newser) - Odds are, the state you live in doesn't matter in the 2012 election, strategically speaking. Democratic and Republican strategists tend to agree that the entire race will come down to just four or five swing states, the LA Times reports: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and maybe Florida. Polls show... More »

Pennsylvania Rule Change by GOP May Doom Obama

State may switch from winner-take-all in Electoral College

(Newser) - Pennsylvania Republicans are proposing a radical change in how the state divvies up its electoral votes that could have a huge impact on the 2012 election. The plan, which is being championed by Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi and already has the governor’s support, would switch Pennsylvania from a... More »

GOP Election-Law Rewrites Pose Threat to Dems

Minorities, young people targeted in new rules, say voting-rights groups

(Newser) - Pennsylvania’s Republicans aren’t the only ones instituting voting laws likely to hurt Democrats. Some 12 states have begun requiring voters to carry picture ID; Florida and Ohio have reduced early-voting time; and Florida has cracked down on ex-felons voting, the Washington Post reports. Republicans say they want... More »

Sneak Attack on Electoral College Gains Ground

(Newser) - Opponents of the Electoral College are making progress on an end run around the institution with the goal of setting up a system that would decide the presidential election solely on the popular vote, Tara Ross writes for the Weekly Standard. “Formally eliminating the Electoral College through a constitutional... More »

Texas Wants to Secede? That Sounds Great!

Democrats would love to have state's 34 electoral votes back

(Newser) - Rick Perry’s talk of seceding from the union might seem crazy, but calling the Texas governor's bluff would be a great deal for Democrats, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. Consider:
  • Democrats would suddenly have a filibuster-proof majority in the 98-seat Senate.
  • Republicans would lose eight more House members
... More »

Pelosi Sacks Fla. Rep's Plea to Delay Votes for Gator Game

Ocala pol wanted to suspend biz for football

(Newser) - A Florida congressman asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to postpone certifying the election of Barack Obama and other business so the Florida and Oklahoma delegations can attend the Gators and Sooners BCS championship game tomorrow, AP reports. "Madam Speaker, kindly consider," Republican Cliff Stearns pleaded in a handwritten... More »

Electoral College Needs Rehab

State-level apportioning is the only viable way towards electing the president by popular vote

(Newser) - The 538 electors chosen to represent the will of the people cast their ballots for president today, officially ending the contest between Barack Obama and John McCain, writes Randall Lane for the New York Times. The otherwise-predictable ritual included a twist: a Nebraska elector voting for the candidate who won... More »

Nebraska Splits Electoral Votes, in First; Obama Gets 1

Dem will get slice of state's 5

(Newser) - Barack Obama has won a single Nebraska electoral vote in post-election counting, the first time the state has split the vote since a 1991 law allowed the practice, the AP reports. No Democrat has gotten a vote in the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. More »

Silver: Only 5 States Matter Now

(Newser) - The campaigns would have you believe that lots of states are still in play, but only five really matter at this point, writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. They are Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Ohio. Silver emphasizes that "by far the most likely scenario" is that Barack Obama... More »

McCain Running in Place: Polls

Obama has a 96.7% chance of victory, 538 predicts

(Newser) - John McCain isn’t gaining any ground in the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, which pegs Obama’s odds of victory at 96.7% to McCain’s 3.3%. As of yesterday, polls predict a final electoral score of 351-187, numbers unchanged from the day before. National tracking polls showed minuscule... More »

John McCain, Here's How You Can Still Win This Election

Forget about Pa.; focus on Virginia, Florida, FiveThirtyEight says

(Newser) - John McCain, the polls aren’t looking good and your running mate is being accused of going “rogue,” but Nate Silver has some advice on how you can still eke out a victory. “No razzle-dazzle here,” Silver writes for FiveThirtyEight, “McCain simply has to pick... More »

A Baseball Nerd Turns to Election Stats

Nate Silver was right on the Rays; he's now calling the presidency

(Newser) - Give the sheer number of political polls being produced, and the history of many of them proving wrong, it takes a seriously smart statistician (and something of a nerd) to predict the presidential race with any authority. Nate Silver, the man who "revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats,"... More »

Obama Eyes Omaha to Split Neb. Votes

Campaign wants to pick up just one of Nebraska's electoral votes

(Newser) - Forty-eight of 50 states award electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, but Nebraska, divvies up electoral votes by congressional district—and the Obama campaign sees an opening, reports the Washington Post. By concentrating just on the Omaha area, the Democrats are trying to pick up a single electoral vote in... More »

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