Dem will get slice of state's 5
Associated Press Nov 14, 08 5:08 PM CST
(Newser)
-
Barack Obama has won a single Nebraska electoral vote in post-election counting, the first time the state has split the vote since a 1991 law allowed the practice, the AP reports. No Democrat has gotten a vote in the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
More »
analysis
FiveThirtyEight.com Nov 1, 08 10:40 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
The campaigns would have you believe that lots of states are still in play, but only five really matter at this point, writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. They are Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Ohio. Silver emphasizes that "by far the most likely scenario" is that Barack Obama will cruise to victory with somewhere between 300 and 400 electoral votes. But if the national polls tighten—and he doesn't think they will—some combination of these five states will decide the day.
More »
ANALYSIS
Obama has a 96.7% chance of victory, 538 predicts
FiveThirtyEight.com Oct 28, 08 12:29 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
John McCain isn’t gaining any ground in the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, which pegs Obama’s odds of victory at 96.7% to McCain’s 3.3%. As of yesterday, polls predict a final electoral score of 351-187, numbers unchanged from the day before. National tracking polls showed minuscule moves in McCain’s direction, but that hasn’t shown up in state-by-state polling.
More »
ANALYSIS
Forget about Pa.; focus on Virginia, Florida, FiveThirtyEight says
FiveThirtyEight.com Oct 26, 08 12:11 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
John McCain, the polls aren’t looking good and your running mate is being accused of going “rogue,” but Nate Silver has some advice on how you can still eke out a victory. “No razzle-dazzle here,” Silver writes for FiveThirtyEight, “McCain simply has to pick which states he and Sarah Palin can do the most good in.” To wit:
More »
Nate Silver was right
on the Rays; he's now calling the presidency
New York Oct 15, 08 11:32 AM CDT
(Newser)
-
Give the sheer number of political polls being produced, and the history of many of them proving wrong, it takes a seriously smart statistician (and something of a nerd) to predict the presidential race with any authority. Nate Silver, the man who "revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats," is both, and he's doing it again with politics, on his site FiveThirtyEight, New York magazine reports.
More »
Campaign wants to pick up just one of Nebraska's electoral votes
Washington Post Oct 6, 08 7:09 AM CDT
(Newser)
-
Forty-eight of 50 states award electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, but Nebraska, divvies up electoral votes by congressional district—and the Obama campaign sees an opening, reports the Washington Post . By concentrating just on the Omaha area, the Democrats are trying to pick up a single electoral vote in a state that George W. Bush won by 22 points in 2004.
More »
Republican strategist calls some close states for the Democrat
Politico Oct 5, 08 1:03 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
Karl Rove isn't seeing red when he looks at his crystal electoral map, reports Politico, and is seeing enough blue to propel Barack Obama into the White House if the vote were held today. The GOP strategist has moved Minnesota and New Hampshire into the Democratic column, but cautions that the race is still plenty prone to dramatic swings. Meanwhile, in the battleground state of Virginia, GOP leaders are squirming, Politico reports.
More »
GOP has hard time making case to worried voters for 4 more years
New York Times Oct 5, 08 9:25 AM CDT
(Newser)
-
As voters turn green over the shaky economy, the electoral map is turning blue, according to a New York Times tally. Barack Obama is hitting hard in nine states that George Bush took in 2004 and weren’t expected to be tossups this close to November—forcing John McCain to spend in traditional GOP strongholds, cut back on offense in Democratic bastions, and pull out of economically devastated Michigan.
More »
ANALYSIS
The 1% chance of Obama and McCain fighting to a draw has web humming
Wall Street Journal Sep 26, 08 2:07 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
It’s not inconceivable that the 2008 election could end in an electoral tie. OK, granted, the odds are roughly 99-1, but that 1% chance is enough to send politics geeks flocking to sites such as FiveThirtyEight.com, which conduct complex electoral simulations based on the latest polling, the Wall Street Journal reports. “If we had a tie, I would be surprised, but I wouldn't be shocked,” said simulation guru Sheldon Jacobsen.
More »
Obama leads in poll; Democrat hasn't taken state since 1964
Los Angeles Times Aug 14, 08 12:36 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
The cold, snowy tundras of Alaska may transform into a battleground this November as Barack Obama and John McCain vie for the Land of the Midnight Sun's three electoral votes. Alaska hasn't gone blue since 1964, when LBJ won in a landslide, but an Anchorage-based poll currently has Obama leading McCain by 5 percentage points.
More »
Rejuvenated local Dems bode well for Obama campaign
Economist Aug 1, 08 11:14 AM CDT
(Newser)
-
Ohio is the ultimate swing state: Since 1960 no president has been elected without winning its electoral votes, and in 2004, by the narrowest of margins, it delivered George W. Bush a second term. But this time around, Democrats are confident of their chances, the Economist reports. The state party has been rejuvenated after a long spell in the political wilderness.
More »
analysis
As in 2000, Dem could win popular vote, lose Electoral College to Republican
Politico Jun 19, 08 3:04 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
Observers are speculating about a split decision in November, with John McCain winning the presidency while Barack Obama takes the popular vote—and Harry Siegel, in Politico, says the chances might not be that slim. Obama looks likely to build massive margins in coastal states (already safely Democratic) while making inroads in Republican bastions—though not enough for an Electoral College flip.
More »
Dem aims to keep Kerry states, add Virginia, Georgia, in Mountain West
Associated Press Jun 16, 08 11:46 AM CDT
(Newser)
-
Barack Obama is hardly giving up on Florida and Ohio, but campaign manager David Plouffe thinks the Democrat can win without them. “You have a lot of ways to get to 270,” Plouffe says. “Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on Nov. 4.” Plouffe envisions a redrawn electoral map, where Virginia, Georgia, and several Western states could turn blue.
More »
GOP strategists say cards stacked for big electoral victory
Politico May 24, 08 12:00 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
Despite the odds stacked against Republicans, GOP analysts are cautiously saying that John McCain will not only win, but he might do so by a comfortable margin, Politico reports. When Obama’s specific and geographical weaknesses are played against McCain’s strengths, the result adds up to a win of up to 50 electoral votes, more than President Bush's 35-vote win in 2004.
More »
System is an undemocratic throwback, writes Garrett Epps
Salon Oct 13, 07 5:44 PM CDT
(Newser)
-
The Electoral College is "a loaded gun pointed directly at the heart of our democracy," writes Garrett Epps in Salon, and it's high time to get rid of the throwback designed to protect slave ownership. No part of the Constitution has failed more, he argues, citing the 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000 elections, when the popular-vote winner was defeated in the Electoral College.
More »