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December 2, 2008 4:15:38 AM CST


electoral college

electoral college news stories

17 Stories

(Newser) - Barack Obama has won a single Nebraska electoral vote in post-election counting, the first time the state has split the vote since a 1991 law allowed the practice, the AP reports. No Democrat has gotten a vote in the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 John McCain President Obama Nebraska electoral college electoral votes

analysis
(Newser) - The campaigns would have you believe that lots of states are still in play, but only five really matter at this point, writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. They are Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Ohio. Silver emphasizes that "by far the most likely scenario" is that Barack Obama will cruise to victory with somewhere between 300 and 400 electoral votes. But if the national polls tighten—and he doesn't think they will—some combination of these five states will decide the day. More »

More about:  Election 2008 Obama 2008 McCain 2008 campaign electoral college

ANALYSIS


 McCain 
 Running
 in Place:  
 Polls

Obama has a 96.7% chance of victory, 538 predicts

(Newser) - John McCain isn’t gaining any ground in the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, which pegs Obama’s odds of victory at 96.7% to McCain’s 3.3%. As of yesterday, polls predict a final electoral score of 351-187, numbers unchanged from the day before. National tracking polls showed minuscule moves in McCain’s direction, but that hasn’t shown up in state-by-state polling. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 John McCain poll numbers electoral college

ANALYSIS

John McCain, Here's How You Can Still Win This Election

Forget about Pa.; focus on Virginia, Florida, FiveThirtyEight says

(Newser) - John McCain, the polls aren’t looking good and your running mate is being accused of going “rogue,” but Nate Silver has some advice on how you can still eke out a victory. “No razzle-dazzle here,” Silver writes for FiveThirtyEight, “McCain simply has to pick which states he and Sarah Palin can do the most good in.” To wit: More »

More about:  John McCain Florida Iowa Ohio New Hampshire North Carolina Minnesota Virginia Pennsylvania Indiana Colorado Wisconsin Missouri New Mexico electoral college Nate Silver

A Baseball Nerd Turns to
Election Stats

Nate Silver was right
on the Rays; he's now calling the presidency

(Newser) - Give the sheer number of political polls being produced, and the history of many of them proving wrong, it takes a seriously smart statistician (and something of a nerd) to predict the presidential race with any authority. Nate Silver, the man who "revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats," is both, and he's doing it again with politics, on his site FiveThirtyEight, New York  magazine reports. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 John McCain baseball Obama 2008 McCain 2008 polls electoral college predictions Tampa Bay Devil Rays statistics

 Obama Eyes Omaha 
 to Split Neb. Votes 

Campaign wants to pick up just one of Nebraska's electoral votes

(Newser) - Forty-eight of 50 states award electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, but Nebraska, divvies up electoral votes by congressional district—and the Obama campaign sees an opening, reports the Washington Post . By concentrating just on the Omaha area, the Democrats are trying to pick up a single electoral vote in a state that George W. Bush won by 22 points in 2004. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 Sarah Palin Nebraska electoral college Omaha red state electoral votes

 Rove: Obama Wins 
 if Vote Were Today 

Republican strategist calls some close states for the Democrat

(Newser) - Karl Rove isn't seeing red when he looks at his crystal electoral map, reports Politico, and is seeing enough blue to propel Barack Obama into the White House if the vote were held today. The GOP strategist has moved Minnesota and New Hampshire into the Democratic column, but cautions that the race is still plenty prone to dramatic swings. Meanwhile, in the battleground state of Virginia, GOP leaders are squirming, Politico reports. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 Karl Rove New Hampshire Minnesota Virginia swing states electoral college

Dire Economy Boosts Obama in Swing States 

GOP has hard time making case to worried voters for 4 more years

(Newser) - As voters turn green over the shaky economy, the electoral map is turning blue, according to a New York Times tally. Barack Obama is hitting hard in nine states that George Bush took in 2004 and weren’t expected to be tossups this close to November—forcing John McCain to spend in traditional GOP strongholds, cut back on offense in Democratic bastions, and pull out of economically devastated Michigan. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 John McCain Financial Crisis economy swing states electoral college blue states

ANALYSIS

 Oh, No: They Could Tie 

The 1% chance of Obama and McCain fighting to a draw has web humming

(Newser) - It’s not inconceivable that the 2008 election could end in an electoral tie. OK, granted, the odds are roughly 99-1, but that 1% chance is enough to send politics geeks flocking to sites such as FiveThirtyEight.com, which conduct complex electoral simulations based on the latest polling, the Wall Street Journal reports. “If we had a tie, I would be surprised, but I wouldn't be shocked,” said simulation guru Sheldon Jacobsen. More »

More about:  Election 2008 poll numbers electoral college

Alaska Turning Purple as Election Nears

Obama leads in poll; Democrat hasn't taken state since 1964

(Newser) - The cold, snowy tundras of Alaska may transform into a battleground this November as Barack Obama and John McCain vie for the Land of the Midnight Sun's three electoral votes. Alaska hasn't gone blue since 1964, when LBJ won in a landslide, but an Anchorage-based poll currently has Obama leading McCain by 5 percentage points. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 John McCain Alaska Ted Stevens electoral college

Perennial Swing State Ohio Looks Blue

Rejuvenated local Dems bode well for Obama campaign

(Newser) - Ohio is the ultimate swing state: Since 1960 no president has been elected without winning its electoral votes, and in 2004, by the narrowest of margins, it delivered George W. Bush a second term. But this time around, Democrats are confident of their chances, the Economist reports. The state party has been rejuvenated after a long spell in the political wilderness. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 John McCain Ohio Democratic Party electoral college Ted Strickland Sherrod Brown

analysis

 How Obama Could Get Gored 

As in 2000, Dem could win popular vote, lose Electoral College to Republican

(Newser) - Observers are speculating about a split decision in November, with John McCain winning the presidency while Barack Obama takes the popular vote—and Harry Siegel, in Politico, says the chances might not be that slim. Obama looks likely to build massive margins in coastal states (already safely Democratic) while making inroads in Republican bastions—though not enough for an Electoral College flip. More »

More about:  Barack Obama John McCain North Carolina Indiana electoral college Bob Barr popular vote

Obama's Electoral Math:
Win Without Ohio, Fla. 

Dem aims to keep Kerry states, add Virginia, Georgia, in Mountain West

(Newser) - Barack Obama is hardly giving up on Florida and Ohio, but campaign manager David Plouffe thinks the Democrat can win without them. “You have a lot of ways to get to 270,” Plouffe says. “Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on Nov. 4.” Plouffe envisions a redrawn electoral map, where Virginia, Georgia, and several Western states could turn blue. More »

More about:  Barack Obama Election 2008 Obama 2008 electoral college David Plouffe

 Could McCain 
 Win Big? 

GOP strategists say cards stacked for big electoral victory

(Newser) - Despite the odds stacked against Republicans, GOP analysts are cautiously saying that John McCain will not only win, but he might do so by a comfortable margin, Politico reports. When Obama’s specific and geographical weaknesses are played against McCain’s strengths, the result adds up to a win of up to 50 electoral votes, more than President Bush's 35-vote win in 2004. More »

More about:  Barack Obama John McCain Republican Party Democratic Party electoral college

Boot the Electoral College: Salon

System is an undemocratic throwback, writes Garrett Epps

(Newser) - The Electoral College is "a loaded gun pointed directly at the heart of our democracy," writes Garrett Epps in Salon, and it's high time to get rid of the throwback designed to protect slave ownership. No part of the Constitution has failed more, he argues, citing the 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000 elections, when the popular-vote winner was defeated in the Electoral College.  More »