Betting Odds for Top 4 GOP Candidates

It's Romney, Pawlenty, Perry, and Bachmann (in that order): Nate Silver
By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff
Posted Jun 24, 2011 5:53 AM CDT
Updated Jun 24, 2011 7:50 AM CDT
Michele Bachmann makes the top-four cut.   (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)
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(Newser) – With the GOP candidates for 2012 out of the gates, statistics whiz Nate Silver sets the odds in the first of a 3-part series for the New York Times. The longshots will be looked at in later installments. His top four:

  • Mitt Romney: 3-2 against—a 40% chance of winning the nomination.
    The undisputed front-runner, Romney has gained more than any other GOP candidate in the last two months. Concerns about his health care bill and his apparent lack of interest in Iowa keep him from being 50/50.

  • Tim Pawlenty: 9-2 against—an 18% chance. Pawlenty's popularity has barely budged over the last couple of months, but his mainstream ideology, campaign infrastructure, and presence in Iowa make him worth a wager, Silver decides.
  • Rick Perry: 7-1 against—a 12.5% chance. The Texan has similar strengths to Pawlenty and would easily pull even with the Minnesotan if he entered the race today.
  • Michele Bachmann: 15-2 against—a 12% chance. Bachmann's post-debate surge looks set to make her a legitimate contender for the nomination. An Iowa caucus win is a real possibility, and she could get lucky if more establishment-friendly contenders end up in a stalemate.
Click for Silver's full analysis of the leaders.

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