With the Iowa caucuses kicking off voting in the 2016 presidential election on Monday, the final Des Moines Register-Bloomberg poll out of the state shows Hillary Clinton hanging onto a three-point lead over Bernie Sanders, 45% to 42%, reports NBC News. Martin O'Malley is polling at 3%. But results get a little more volatile on the Republican side, where onetime frontrunner Donald Trump is now the current frontrunner, and by no small margin: Trump has surged past Ted Cruz, and now leads by 28% of likely caucus-goers to Cruz's 23%. Marco Rubio sits at 15%, while Ben Carson has 10%.
But it's not all over for Cruz, notes the Register: "The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race," says pollster J. Ann Selzer, who correctly predicted Barack Obama's win over Clinton in 2008, as well as Rick Santorum's surge in 2012. Back on the Democratic side, there's a key to what could boost Sanders over the top on Monday: "Turnout is everything," David Axelrod tells the Register. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie." Sanders himself is playing up that angle, notes the AP: "People are really enthusiastic and if people come out to vote, I think you're going to look at one of the biggest political upsets in the modern history of our country," Sanders told CNN Sunday.