In NH, a Vote Against Trump Could Actually Help Trump
Primary has potential to shake up race
By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff
Posted Feb 9, 2016 4:13 AM CST
Updated Feb 9, 2016 7:02 AM CST
Bernie Sanders pauses as the audience cheers during a campaign stop at the University of New Hampshire Whittemore Center Arena on Monday in Durham, NH.   (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
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(Newser) – The nation's first primary has begun—and the only thing that appears certain is that New Hampshire will deliver different winners than the Iowa caucuses did. Some factors to watch out for in the state's 100th primary:

  • Bernie Sanders looks like a sure thing, according to the forecast at FiveThirtyEight, which puts his chances of winning at more than 99%. The senator from neighboring Vermont has a double-digit lead in the latest polls, Politico notes.
  • According to FiveThirtyEight's calculations, Donald Trump has a 70% chance of winning the GOP race, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio tied in second with a 10% chance each. Jeb Bush has a 6% chance of winning, while Ted Cruz has a 4% chance of repeating his Iowa victory.
  • NPR explains how people casting anti-Trump votes could end up helping him. It's because of a state "threshold" rule: Candidates must get at least 10% of the vote to be awarded any delegates—if they fall short of that percentage, their delegates go to the overall winner, likely Trump.

  • The New York Times takes a look at the state's undeclared voters, who are largely still undecided about which party's primary they're going to vote in, let alone which candidate. Such voters make up around 40% of New Hampshire's electorate and helped swing the state for Hillary Clinton in 2008 and John McCain in 2012.
  • A winter storm has been causing havoc in the region, but officials tell the Union Leader that they've had elections in "much worse weather" and snow probably won't affect turnout too much.
  • The Washington Post takes a look at what the candidates had to say about each other on their last day of campaigning in the state. It got pretty nasty, with Trump telling a crowd that they "have to get rid of the Bushes of the world."
  • If Chris Christie and John Kasich have any road at all out of Iowa, it'll be a tough one, Politico finds in a look at what the governors will have to do to stay relevant in the month ahead.
  • The Boston Globe looked for the most accurate bellwether in the state and found it between Lake Winnipesaukee and Lake Winnisquam. The small city of Laconia has been within 5% of the statewide results in every primary this century.