A new Bloomberg survey of 953 likely voters from Friday to Monday suggests Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in Florida, with Trump at a 2-point lead over Clinton—45% to 43%—in a four-candidate race. But Republicans shouldn't count on those 29 electoral votes just yet, as the poll's 3.2-point margin of error means we could still have a neck-and-neck race, or Clinton may actually be slightly ahead. Still, the poll represents a turn from less than a month ago when Quinnipiac University polled likely voters immediately after the release of the infamous Trump tape and found Clinton leading 48% to 44%, reports CNN.
Though the Real Clear Politics polling average gives Clinton a 1.6-point lead in Florida, per Politico, "this poll suggests Trump has more opportunity in Florida than some think is realistic given his poor standing with Hispanics," a pollster says. "He does well with groups that are key to winning there." While non-whites, voters under 35, and those with a college degree in Florida favor Clinton, Trump wins among older voters, rural voters, those without a college degree, and independents, who gave President Obama the edge in 2012. The poll shows Trump with 44% support among independents in a four-way race, versus 37% for Clinton. The same poll shows Marco Rubio leading by 10 points in his Senate race.