More than two months after the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has revised its prediction that it's likely to be near-normal or below normal. NOAA says there's now a 60% chance of an "above-normal level of activity," with up to 21 named storms. Abnormally warm ocean temperatures are the main reason for the updated forecast, NPR reports. Warm water fuels hurricanes and Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, says the record-breaking temperatures in the North Atlantic are likely to counterbalance the effects of El Niño, which usually disrupts hurricane formation.
NOAA says its forecast "calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111mph or greater)." In a normal year there would only be two named storms by early August. Five storms have already been declared named storms this year, though only four of them—Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Don—were assigned names. A January storm was declared a named storm after a review of data, but its official name is "Unnamed Storm." The next few names on the list are Emily, Franklin, Gert, and Harold. Under the revised forecast, names could be used as far up the list as Vince.
Rosencrans says that in a busy Atlantic hurricane season, "there is a doubling of the chance of a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the US," reports the AP. He says "people should worry and prepare for the storms this forecast implies." NOAA says it "urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses." (More hurricane stories.)
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