This year's presidential race is bamboozling many a pollster. Todd Domke looks at some of skewing factors for the Boston Globe:
- Race: White voters might be reluctant to tell pollsters they oppose a black candidate. Tom Bradley, remember, led the polls for California governor but lost the race. Then again, will white guilt over prejudice offset that?
- Age: When the debates highlight the contrast in ages, will some be turned off by John McCain's relatively weathered look? And will they admit it?
- Turnout: Will Obamania continue to result in a big surge in young voters, or has the novelty faded? How should pollsters adjust their model?
- Tele-polling: Lots of people have cell phones only these days and are consequently beyond the reach of pollsters.