John McCain, the polls aren’t looking good and your running mate is being accused of going “rogue,” but Nate Silver has some advice on how you can still eke out a victory. “No razzle-dazzle here,” Silver writes for FiveThirtyEight, “McCain simply has to pick which states he and Sarah Palin can do the most good in.” To wit:
- It’s time to throw in the towel in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa.
- In New Hampshire and New Mexico, stay on the offense.
- But mount “a reasonably vigorous” defensive strategy in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and North Carolina.
- Roll the dice in Florida, Missouri, and Indiana and “hope a national surge of some kind” makes those states red again.