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'Circle of Pain' Snags Emerging Markets, Too

Krugman: Russia et al. not immune after all to crisis' vicious cycle

By Jason Farago,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 27, 2008 12:41 PM CDT

(Newser) – Only a few weeks ago, it seemed the main fronts of the financial crisis were the Western banking system and mortgage market. But now the crisis has spread to emerging markets like Russia and Brazil. As Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times, the mantra of “decoupling”—that emerging economies could operate independent of the West—turns out to be a fiction.

In Russia, for example, the government was amassing a stable portfolio of foreign exchange—but risk-oblivious corporations and banks ran up huge debts denominated in dollars or euros. Now the bills are due, institutions worldwide are failing, and the turmoil in the global system only makes things worse. “Bad news begets bad news,” Krugman says, “and the circle of pain just keeps getting wider.”

A trading session at Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, MICEX, on Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008. The Moscow stock market has taken a hammering and was recently suspended.
A trading session at Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, MICEX, on Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008. The Moscow stock market has taken a hammering and was recently suspended.   (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
Vladimir Putin and the Russian government might have impressive stockpiles of foreign currency, but the country's incautious private sector is in a heap of trouble over some bad bets.
Vladimir Putin and the Russian government might have impressive stockpiles of foreign currency, but the country's incautious private sector is in a heap of trouble over some bad bets.   (AP Photo)
Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega could see his country come in for a hard landing as the economic crisis engulfs emerging market, one economist says.
Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega could see his country come in for a "hard landing" as the economic crisis engulfs emerging market, one economist says.   (AP Photo)
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Emerging market governments have been careful to borrow mainly in domestic markets, while building up lots of dollar reserves. But all their caution was undone by the private sector’s obliviousness to risk. - Paul Krugman

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