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Why the Polls May Be Wrong

Use of cell phones, unexpected turnout could skew results

By Nick McMaster,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 30, 2008 6:08 PM CDT
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(Newser) – Opinion polls can be wrong—just look at Thomas Dewey in 1948 or even Barack Obama, who led Hillary Clinton before the New Hampshire primary but lost anyway. Reuters outlines some factors that could be skewing current results:

  • Turnout: Polls filter the results of phone surveys through models of who is likely to actually vote. But with turnout, especially among African-Americans, expected to set a record, “likely voter” models could be out of date.

  • Cell phones: Pollsters reach households by phone, and with increasing numbers of Americans using cell phones and not land lines, a portion of the electorate is beyond their reach.
  • The “Bradley Effect”: Though the widely cited theory that racist voters lie to pollsters has been questioned, those with strong racial prejudice may be left out of polls because they are more likely to hang up on telephone survey operators.

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. speaks at a Town Square Stop in the Gazebo at Washington Park in Sandusky, Ohio, Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. speaks at a Town Square Stop in the Gazebo at Washington Park in Sandusky, Ohio, Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.   (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
U.S. President Harry S. Truman holds up an Election Day edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune in 1948.
U.S. President Harry S. Truman holds up an Election Day edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune in 1948.   (AP Photo/Byron Rollins)
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., arrives at a rally in Sarasota, Fla., Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., arrives at a rally in Sarasota, Fla., Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 3 comments
Shannonals
Nov 1, 2008 3:21 AM CDT
Hate to say it, but here comes the The “Bradley Effect”. I wish it wasn't so, but it's either that or the country will experience another Al Gore election
Forderon
Oct 31, 2008 7:33 AM CDT
So this is saying Obama's lead is even bigger than it is? I hope so, but I wouldn't assume anything from Americans.
whtmountain
Oct 31, 2008 3:43 AM CDT
Now that's just at the bottome of the barriel - they didn't have the technology or instant information in those days! This is just another GOP pipe dream - that happens when you are in denial!

Polls show Obama push in red states pulling off
CBS News

Obama lead slipping in national polls
Boston Herald

 
cell phones • racism • New Hampshire primary • voter turnout • Election 2008 • opinion polls • Bradley effect

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