If economists are right, the worst is over for the US economy. In a survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics, 74% of economists said the recession would end in the third quarter. But the coming recovery won’t be a strong one, they warned. Job losses will continue for the rest of the year, which will restrain consumer spending.
Economists think the government’s stimulus spending and credit market initiatives will ultimately be responsible for the rebound. “There are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing,” said one economist. But the recovery could be “considerably more moderate than expected.”