The climate change bill barely squeaked through the House yesterday, and while that doesn't bode well for its passing the Senate, it's not necessarily doomed there, Nate Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight. One factor is the White House: Having been relatively mum on the House battle, President Obama “has conserved a lot of his political muscle for the Senate fight.” And the senators voting on it are not as worried about reelection as their House counterparts.
A vote last year on Senate climate change legislation showed a number of Republicans perhaps willing to vote yea, though it also revealed significant Democratic opposition. “The point is this,” Silver writes: “I don't think there are 41 solid 'no's in the Senate—not yet. There might be 37 or 38 or 39, but not 41. And as long as that's the case, there's some daylight for the White House.”