Economic Muck Gives GOP Hope for New Blood in 2010

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

But movement may hurt GOP more than it helps

(NEWSER) - The Tea Party movement looks set to emerge from next month's election with enough members of Congress to be able to advance its agenda, a New York Times analysis finds. Eight Tea-Party backed Senate candidates and 33 House candidates stand a good or better chance of winning and the caucus is likely to exert influence beyond its numbers, pressuring Republican leaders to cut spending and taxes and repeal health care legislation. More»

She's now ahead in polls, but Delaware GOP is fighting back

(NEWSER) - If you thought Christine O'Donnell's anti-masturbation stance and "strange" ways were going to keep her from winning tomorrow's Delaware Republican Senate primary, think again. A new poll shows she's leading Rep. Mike Castle 47% to 44%—in other words, a dead heat, since the poll has a 3.8% margin of error, Politico reports. That's quite a jump from last month, when 60% of Delaware Republicans indicated a preference for Castle. "This race is too close to call and could certainly go either way," says a Public Policy Polling rep. More»

Americans aren't undecided, and the public option was DOA: Cillizza

(NEWSER) - With health care reform seemingly headed for passage now that Bart Stupak's on board, Chris Cillizza looks back at the debate and finds five persistent arguments with little or no grounding in reality.

• Scott Brown was a game-changer: "Yes and no," Cillizza writes for the Washington Post . Lacking a supermajority, the Democrats have had to tread carefully, "but the meat of the bill—an attempt at broad reform—never really changed"

Ignore the political crowd, the president's been great for business

(NEWSER) - President Obama doesn't get much political credit for it, but the numbers show his economic policies have been a resounding success. Since he took office, the S&P 500 is up 41%, credit spreads have narrowed, commodity prices have surged, and housing prices have stabilized, writes Mike Dorning of Bloomberg . GDP grew 5.9% in the fourth quarter, far more than analysts predicted, and job losses have slowed. More»